New Lower Thames Crossing

[Peter Freeman]

If both the 'procurement start' date 01/09/2024 for the Tilbury Port Access and the LTC timetable don't change, then the two projects will overlap. That could allow a last-minute decision to not build that temporary freeflow slip.

However, do we know what 'Tilbury Port Access' actually means? Is it really to access LTC? If so, is it simply resurrection of the original version, beefing up the folded dumbbell that's provided for maintenance/operations near the tunnel's northern portal? That would be so sensible, and could allow radical simplification of the whole LTC/A13 mess.

[jackal]

I think they split off the Tilbury scheme from the LTC as it was controversial and they didn't want to delay the whole project. Most likely it would use that dumbbell. The LTC design wouldn't change to account for it.

[Peter Freeman]

I think they split off the Tilbury scheme from the LTC as it was controversial and they didn't want to delay the whole project. Most likely it would use that dumbbell. The LTC design wouldn't change to account for it.

Wouldn't change, but beneficially could. If the projects were synchronised, a trumpet could be built initially instead of the dumbbell. Also, the LTC/A13 interchange could be a limited one (4- or 6-movement, not 8-movement; possibly parclo) with no connection to the A1089: neater, smaller, lower cost, and little loss of function.

[WHBM]

Balfour Beatty win the job to build the crossing

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest ... 3-01-2023/

Bet it hacked off Laing O'Rourke. It's right under their noses in their head office.

[RichardA35]

Balfour Beatty win the job to build the crossing

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest ... 3-01-2023/

Bet it hacked off Laing O'Rourke. It's right under their noses in their head office.

Well, to make it clear:
1. The contract awarded is not for "the crossing" but is for the northern roads section, one of three, with the tunnel and southern roads sections still up for grabs
2. Laing O'Rourke's office is on the south side of the river nearly under the Dartford crossing, nowhere near the LTC
3. They were not even on the tender list as their roads capability is pretty low apart from schemes associated with bits of HS2.
But Hey Ho...

[darkcape]

After their lucky escape with the A453 widening I think they've steered clear of major highways schemes as Richard says. And they are hacked off about the awarding of other contracts, to the point where it looks like they are going to get it awarded anyway - but not related to a roads scheme

[Herned]

A two-year delay is likely to mean a cancellation for this, I can't see a prospective Labour government deciding to spend £7bn on it

[Truvelo]

A two-year delay is likely to mean a cancellation for this, I can't see a prospective Labour government deciding to spend £7bn on it

It seems all the big ticket schemes are being pushed back by two years. HS2 north of Birmingham is also being delayed by the same amount. What's the other major scheme in the pipeline - oh yeah, Stonehenge Tunnel. That'll be the next one to have a so-called two year delay slapped on it. All three will eventually get the chop.

[Phil]

A two-year delay is likely to mean a cancellation for this, I can't see a prospective Labour government deciding to spend £7bn on it

It seems all the big ticket schemes are being pushed back by two years. HS2 north of Birmingham is also being delayed by the same amount. What's the other major scheme in the pipeline - oh yeah, Stonehenge Tunnel. That'll be the next one to have a so-called two year delay slapped on it. All three will eventually get the chop.

HS2 (Litchfield - Crewe) is unlikely to get the chop as construction works are well underway - plus any Labour administration will want to try keep their northern voters happy (as gaining power will be contingent on having those 'red wall' seats which switched to Boris last time return to their Labour voting ways)

By contrast actual construction of both Stonehenge and the Lower Thames tunnel is yet to start (plus they are both 'in the south') so I agree they would be easy candidates for cancellation.

However, it should also be noted that in the case of the lower Thames crossing traffic volumes are not going to suddenly disappear and moreover the Dartford crossing struggles year round to cope where as the issues at Stonehenge tend to be more seasonal and tied in with holiday traffic. As such its more likely that the Lower Thames crossing would survive (though quite possibly delayed) rather than completely canned.

[Herned]

HS2 (Litchfield - Crewe) is unlikely to get the chop as construction works are well underway - plus any Labour administration will want to try keep their northern voters happy (as gaining power will be contingent on having those 'red wall' seats which switched to Boris last time return to their Labour voting ways)

By contrast actual construction of both Stonehenge and the Lower Thames tunnel is yet to start (plus they are both 'in the south') so I agree they would be easy candidates for cancellation.

However, it should also be noted that in the case of the lower Thames crossing traffic volumes are not going to suddenly disappear and moreover the Dartford crossing struggles year round to cope where as the issues at Stonehenge tend to be more seasonal and tied in with holiday traffic. As such its more likely that the Lower Thames crossing would survive (though quite possibly delayed) rather than completely canned.

Hs2 isn't under construction as such, although enabling works are under way like moving utilities, but I agree its unlikely a Labour government wouldn't go ahead.

Stonehenge wasn't mentioned by the Minister, which may or may not be a good thing, so wishful thinking would be that it gets the go ahead and construction starts in the next year or so. Also politics may come into it, if the Lib Dems do well in the SW which they traditionally do, then whoever forms the next government could well need to offer them something

[Chris5156]

I’d have thought HS2 was more likely to survive under a Labour government than big-ticket tunnel projects in the south east. HS2 is public transport and can be sold on the environmental and “levelling up the north” angles, while Stonehenge and LTC are road building to benefit the south.

If I were a Labour chancellor arriving at the Treasury in 2024 I know where my priorities would be, and I wouldn’t be too sentimental about continuing with the system of Road Investment Periods or ringfenced VED either.

Stonehenge wasn't mentioned by the Minister, which may or may not be a good thing, so wishful thinking would be that it gets the go ahead and construction starts in the next year or so. Also politics may come into it, if the Lib Dems do well in the SW which they traditionally do, then whoever forms the next government could well need to offer them something

Cynically, the only way Stonehenge could be used as an “offer” to voters in the south west is if the start date is deferred until after the next election. If it’s yet to start, the Tories can claim to be the party that will get it done. If it’s already started by then you’ll get your tunnel no matter who’s in government - nobody ever cast a vote to thank a party for something they’d already done.

[BF2142]

People in the SW are still waiting for the paused electrification into Bristol Temple Meads to be completed.

I don't trust the gov to be upfront about HS2. Their entire rail infra plan from 2009 has not been delivered. Remember the "electric spine", remember HS3, remember electrifying to Swansea and the Valleys, the western access for Heathrow? They have no other big ticket infra project to fall back on. If HS2 terminates at Birmingham, it will be game over for them in another policy area. "The party that overpromises and underdelivers on pretty much everything".

My concern is that Lab will play it too conservatively and have another banal can-kicking infra "review" before, predictably, cancelling everything.

What ever happened to the UK that could build? When did we become a nation of timid, fearful, nostalgic nimbys?

[jnty]

People in the SW are still waiting for the paused electrification into Bristol Temple Meads to be completed.

I don't trust the gov to be upfront about HS2. Their entire rail infra plan from 2009 has not been delivered. Remember the "electric spine", remember HS3, remember electrifying to Swansea and the Valleys, the western access for Heathrow? They have no other big ticket infra project to fall back on. If HS2 terminates at Birmingham, it will be game over for them in another policy area. "The party that overpromises and underdelivers on pretty much everything".

My concern is that Lab will play it too conservatively and have another banal can-kicking infra "review" before, predictably, cancelling everything.

What ever happened to the UK that could build? When did we become a nation of timid, fearful, nostalgic nimbys?

The particular frustrating thing is that that decade was one of extremely low interest rates and inflation - a perfect background to massive investment. Now everything's actually looking like it might get started, we're in the opposite situation and as a result have ended up in this mess.

[Herned]

Cynically, the only way Stonehenge could be used as an “offer” to voters in the south west is if the start date is deferred until after the next election. If it’s yet to start, the Tories can claim to be the party that will get it done. If it’s already started by then you’ll get your tunnel no matter who’s in government - nobody ever cast a vote to thank a party for something they’d already done.

Yes, that's a very good point. They wouldn't be that cynical though, not this government

[KeithW]

The particular frustrating thing is that that decade was one of extremely low interest rates and inflation - a perfect background to massive investment. Now everything's actually looking like it might get started, we're in the opposite situation and as a result have ended up in this mess.

It did get started - see RIS 1 and 2 then Covid arrived and Russia invaded Ukraine - Stuff happens and its rarely at a convenient time.

[roadtester]

The particular frustrating thing is that that decade was one of extremely low interest rates and inflation - a perfect background to massive investment. Now everything's actually looking like it might get started, we're in the opposite situation and as a result have ended up in this mess.

It did get started - see RIS 1 and 2 then Covid arrived and Russia invaded Ukraine - Stuff happens and its rarely at a convenient time.

We’ve had exceptionally low interest rates since 2008. Instead of exploiting that to borrow to invest, the incoming Tory/LibDem Tory government did massive austerity cuts. A huge mistake and lost opportunity that, combined with Brexit, has turned us into the basket case of Europe.

[Scratchwood]

The particular frustrating thing is that that decade was one of extremely low interest rates and inflation - a perfect background to massive investment. Now everything's actually looking like it might get started, we're in the opposite situation and as a result have ended up in this mess.

It did get started - see RIS 1 and 2 then Covid arrived and Russia invaded Ukraine - Stuff happens and its rarely at a convenient time.

We’ve had exceptionally low interest rates since 2008. Instead of exploiting that to borrow to invest, the incoming Tory/LibDem Tory government did massive austerity cuts. A huge mistake and lost opportunity that, combined with Brexit, has turned us into the basket case of Europe.

Those "austerity cuts" were because they inherited a terrible financial situation from Labour, with heavy borrowing to bail out the banks.

Then just as borrowing came down to manageable levels, COVID happened and we once again have horrendous government debts,

Of course many of the problems are self inflicted by the government, but whoever was in charge wouldn't have found it easy.

[Chris Bertram]

It did get started - see RIS 1 and 2 then Covid arrived and Russia invaded Ukraine - Stuff happens and its rarely at a convenient time.

We’ve had exceptionally low interest rates since 2008. Instead of exploiting that to borrow to invest, the incoming Tory/LibDem Tory government did massive austerity cuts. A huge mistake and lost opportunity that, combined with Brexit, has turned us into the basket case of Europe.

Those "austerity cuts" were because they inherited a terrible financial situation from Labour, with heavy borrowing to bail out the banks.

Then just as borrowing came down to manageable levels, COVID happened and we once again have horrendous government debts,

Of course many of the problems are self inflicted by the government, but whoever was in charge wouldn't have found it easy.

ISTR Alistair Darling saying that Labour would have cut even further than the coalition had they been elected.

[AnOrdinarySABREUser]

Considering that smart motorways have been axed, (at the least, proposed ALR schemes have) I wonder if the LTC will be affected by this? As far as I'm aware, I don't think it will, despite the fact that the LTC is, for all intents and purposes, a motorway with green camouflage painted on it. I read this article by the Thames Crossing Action Group, a group led by opponents of the scheme, and I'm quite interested by it. I think they raise a few points, and being opposed to the scheme myself, I find myself agreeing with many of their points. I'll say that this issue is quite moot compared to any of the other issues this scheme has, but I still think that it's quite interesting since smart motorways have become quite political in light of recent activism and axing by the government, so I'd like to see what other's thoughts are on this issue in particular.

[Vierwielen]

People in the SW are still waiting for the paused electrification into Bristol Temple Meads to be completed.

I don't trust the gov to be upfront about HS2. Their entire rail infra plan from 2009 has not been delivered. Remember the "electric spine", remember HS3, remember electrifying to Swansea and the Valleys, the western access for Heathrow? They have no other big ticket infra project to fall back on. If HS2 terminates at Birmingham, it will be game over for them in another policy area. "The party that overpromises and underdelivers on pretty much everything".

My concern is that Lab will play it too conservatively and have another banal can-kicking infra "review" before, predictably, cancelling everything.

What ever happened to the UK that could build? When did we become a nation of timid, fearful, nostalgic nimbys?

When my son was in the army, he was taught the 7 P's (p*ss poor planning produces p*ss poor performance).