A9 dualling

[Euan]

I am surprised that this scheme is likely to be next to start construction being a short section between several miles of existing D2. AIUI the busiest sections are further south.

There are 4 schemes at the stage of possibly publishing Made Orders i.e. decision issued -
Pitlochry to Killiecrankie
Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie
Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore
Tomatin to Moy

I think these are the schemes that will go forward to construction in the next 5 years. Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie and Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore will probably be combined. Pitlochry to Killiecrankie has a high cost relative to its length, so Tomatin to Moy is the obvious choice for SG/TS to keep the A9 dualling project moving.

Completing these schemes would at least link together most of the short sections of dual carriageways which would definitely make a difference to the overall journey between Perth and Inverness. Many of the existing dualled sections just feel that bit too short to be of much benefit on their own.

[A9NWIL]

I am surprised that this scheme is likely to be next to start construction being a short section between several miles of existing D2. AIUI the busiest sections are further south.

There are 4 schemes at the stage of possibly publishing Made Orders i.e. decision issued -
Pitlochry to Killiecrankie
Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie
Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore
Tomatin to Moy

I think these are the schemes that will go forward to construction in the next 5 years. Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie and Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore will probably be combined. Pitlochry to Killiecrankie has a high cost relative to its length, so Tomatin to Moy is the obvious choice for SG/TS to keep the A9 dualling project moving.

Completing these schemes would at least link together most of the short sections of dual carriageways which would definitely make a difference to the overall journey between Perth and Inverness. Many of the existing dualled sections just feel that bit too short to be of much benefit on their own.

Which should leave 2 long sections not dualled but 3 long sections that are dualled. I expect that the 2 long sections will get done between 2025 and 2030 likely after the 2026 election.

[A9Dan]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport ... rs-3126503

Reports in The Scotsman that the A9 completion is to be delayed until 2030 with private finance under consideration and the A96 delayed indefinitely or scaled down.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/loca ... e-23467362

The Daily Record is reporting concerns over the future of the programme with Transport Scotland set to re-asses the project.

Due to the size and significance of the project, Transport Scotland is taking stock to ensure public money is spent appropriately.

[clc]

I disagree, sacrificing Dualling the A9 and A96 for “ Decarbonising projects” is wrong and frankly more political than environmental.
The economic and safety case for both roads far out weighs the cost.
Both the A9 and A96 have always been expensive seeing to be doing exercises.
Infrastructure investment north of Perth has always been played second fiddle to Central belt projects!!

Has the safety case been re-examined since the ASC’s were installed? Is there any publicly available data on where and how accidents actually occur on the A9? Perhaps closing the central gaps on existing dualled sections should be the priority?

[Duncan macknight]

I disagree, sacrificing Dualling the A9 and A96 for “ Decarbonising projects” is wrong and frankly more political than environmental.
The economic and safety case for both roads far out weighs the cost.
Both the A9 and A96 have always been expensive seeing to be doing exercises.
Infrastructure investment north of Perth has always been played second fiddle to Central belt projects!!

Has the safety case been re-examined since the ASC’s were installed? Is there any publicly available data on where and how accidents actually occur on the A9? Perhaps closing the central gaps on existing dualled sections should be the priority?

The single carriageway accidents were mostly a combination of Slow 40mph HGVs mixed with cars travelling at 60+ mph (it was found 1 in 3 cars were doing this) Suddenly coming into a Convey and rash overtaking would play a part. Couple that with closing speeds and you’ve got a fairly bad combination of Road stats. Since the Cameras, the accidents have reduced somewhat and conveys are now moving much better with the 50mph Limit for HGVs and the new D2 sections at Kincraig and Luncarty have improved the road.

My opinion still stands That the A9 does not need fully dualled, the traffic flows and high standard of the road alignment does not warrant a further upgrade. The new dualled sections help a lot in breaking up conveys and providing safe overtaking. I’d say the A82 and many single track roads in the Northwest are much more deserving of upgrading rather than the A9.

[jackal]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport ... rs-3126503

Reports in The Scotsman that the A9 completion is to be delayed until 2030 with private finance under consideration and the A96 delayed indefinitely or scaled down.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/loca ... e-23467362

The Daily Record is reporting concerns over the future of the programme with Transport Scotland set to re-asses the project.

Due to the size and significance of the project, Transport Scotland is taking stock to ensure public money is spent appropriately.

Thanks for that, which pretty much confirms the suspicions above. But the reality is the A9 won't be complete by 2030 either. If they've spent a couple of hundred million so far, another £326m between now and 2026, and it's a £3bn project, that would leave them to spend a cool £2.5bn between 2026 and 2030. How likely is it really that spending will increase tenfold over that period? It's not credible at all and they're not even pretending it is.

The Scottish government should be honest and give a target that actually corresponds to how much they're willing to spend. £326m/5 years=£65m per year. £2.5bn/£65m=38.5 years to complete post-2026 work at the current rate. So that'd be 2065 as a realistic completion date...

And the A96 dualling is completely dead and buried as they aren't building anything at all.

The talk about private finance and 'taking stock' is just a distraction to hide the cold, hard truth about the A9 and A96 until after the election.

[Glen]

This article isn't telling us anything new.
The 2025 date was only ever a theoretical best case scenario if there were no objections or PLIs for any of the schemes. Nobody actually thought was likely to possible in reality, but the design contracts were working towards being ready at the earliest time possible.

Given the size of the individual A96 schemes it's likely that they will be procured via whatever the current model of "not-PFI" is, so the construction cost wouldn't be in the capital budget.
If Inshes to Smithton avoids the need for a PLI then it will reach the same stage as Inverness to Hardmuir, so both could be bundled for procurement. The latter is a city-region deal project, so it needs to go ahead for the funding that is available for it to be used and it relies on the GSJ on the A96 scheme being built to connect to.

If procurement on that was to start this this year there would still be two parliamentary elections between now and construction being completed, that's a very long time in politics, so what a governments two terms into the future will do is anyone's guess.

[Altnabreac]

This article isn't telling us anything new.
The 2025 date was only ever a theoretical best case scenario if there were no objections or PLIs for any of the schemes. Nobody actually thought was likely to possible in reality, but the design contracts were working towards being ready at the earliest time possible.

Given the size of the individual A96 schemes it's likely that they will be procured via whatever the current model of "not-PFI" is, so the construction cost wouldn't be in the capital budget.
If Inshes to Smithton avoids the need for a PLI then it will reach the same stage as Inverness to Hardmuir, so both could be bundled for procurement. The latter is a city-region deal project, so it needs to go ahead for the funding that is available for it to be used and it relies on the GSJ on the A96 scheme being built to connect to.

If procurement on that was to start this this year there would still be two parliamentary elections between now and construction being completed, that's a very long time in politics, so what a governments two terms into the future will do is anyone's guess.

As you say A96 Inverness - Nairn is more about developing Inverness as a City Region than developing the A96 as a strategic long distance route. It is worth progressing even if the rest of the A96 project is put on the backburner.

[Mikehannah]

I admire peoples optimism but the further development of either project is unlikely to go ahead as long as we have the current administration and their goals
The best outcome will be for the Westminster government to step in and take both projects forward. However as transport is a devolved matter this will not sit well with certain individual at Holyrood or their ambitions!!
But boy it would be sweet!!

[wrinkly]

The best outcome will be for the Westminster government to step in and take both projects forward. However as transport is a devolved matter this will not sit well with certain individual at Holyrood or their ambitions!!

If the A9 and A96 with their traffic levels had been in England, would projects to dual them throughout have been brought forward in the first place?

[Glen]

I admire peoples optimism but the further development of either project is unlikely to go ahead as long as we have the current administration and their goals
The best outcome will be for the Westminster government to step in and take both projects forward. However as transport is a devolved matter this will not sit well with certain individual at Holyrood or their ambitions!!
But boy it would be sweet!!

It was the current administration, in the previous term of parliament, who made the commitment to undertake these projects and have progressed them to the stage they are that.
Why on earth do you think that the UK government would make any more progress, not that it actually can do on devolved matters, anyway.

Do you really think that three-jobs Dougie would actually do anything productive, he spends his time complaining about maintenance being done and being shocked that stuff costs money to build.

[clc]

I disagree, sacrificing Dualling the A9 and A96 for “ Decarbonising projects” is wrong and frankly more political than environmental.
The economic and safety case for both roads far out weighs the cost.
Both the A9 and A96 have always been expensive seeing to be doing exercises.
Infrastructure investment north of Perth has always been played second fiddle to Central belt projects!!

Has the safety case been re-examined since the ASC’s were installed? Is there any publicly available data on where and how accidents actually occur on the A9? Perhaps closing the central gaps on existing dualled sections should be the priority?

The single carriageway accidents were mostly a combination of Slow 40mph HGVs mixed with cars travelling at 60+ mph (it was found 1 in 3 cars were doing this) Suddenly coming into a Convey and rash overtaking would play a part. Couple that with closing speeds and you’ve got a fairly bad combination of Road stats. Since the Cameras, the accidents have reduced somewhat and conveys are now moving much better with the 50mph Limit for HGVs and the new D2 sections at Kincraig and Luncarty have improved the road.

My opinion still stands That the A9 does not need fully dualled, the traffic flows and high standard of the road alignment does not warrant a further upgrade. The new dualled sections help a lot in breaking up conveys and providing safe overtaking. I’d say the A82 and many single track roads in the Northwest are much more deserving of upgrading rather than the A9.

I find it more relaxing to drive since the cameras were installed. It only gets a bit tense when approaching a junction with cars sitting in the central gap waiting to turn right across your path - I’m always worried they’ll misjudge the situation or stall right in front of me.

[Mikehannah]

If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.
I do not disagree with the gentleman who supports improvements in the A82 but I do not think it sees the volume that the two north roads two. The point is we should be able to do all three.
Yes the current administration kicked off the projects and have dragged their feet ever since. The length of time to take each section to the of “ Made orders@ is frankly embarrassing in my opinion.

[cb a1]

If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.

I reckon there are plenty of S2 roads (and probably trunk too) in England which have higher volumes than these roads. Traffic volumes aren't the reason for dualling these roads.

Have a read of DMRB TA4697 which sets out the minimum opening year AADT for D2AP. Minimum flow is 11,000 AADT.

Then have a look at A9 Dualling Programme Case for Investment report. Largest forecast for 2027 on the A9 between Perth and Inverness is 9,800 AADT.

[matt-thepie]

If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.
I do not disagree with the gentleman who supports improvements in the A82 but I do not think it sees the volume that the two north roads two. The point is we should be able to do all three.
Yes the current administration kicked off the projects and have dragged their feet ever since. The length of time to take each section to the of “ Made orders@ is frankly embarrassing in my opinion.

The A27, A31, A303 and A35 disagree with you.

[justanotheruser]

Thought I might draw a quick map of the A9 scheme progression, with info gleaned from this thread.

I am surprised that this scheme is likely to be next to start construction being a short section between several miles of existing D2. AIUI the busiest sections are further south.

There are 4 schemes at the stage of possibly publishing Made Orders i.e. decision issued -
Pitlochry to Killiecrankie
Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie
Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore
Tomatin to Moy

I think these are the schemes that will go forward to construction in the next 5 years. Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie and Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore will probably be combined. Pitlochry to Killiecrankie has a high cost relative to its length, so Tomatin to Moy is the obvious choice for SG/TS to keep the A9 dualling project moving.

[A9NWIL]

If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.

I reckon there are plenty of S2 roads (and probably trunk too) in England which have higher volumes than these roads. Traffic volumes aren't the reason for dualling these roads.

Have a read of DMRB TA4697 which sets out the minimum opening year AADT for D2AP. Minimum flow is 11,000 AADT.

Then have a look at A9 Dualling Programme Case for Investment report. Largest forecast for 2027 on the A9 between Perth and Inverness is 9,800 AADT.

I would argue this road is a special case in that its the only road of a high enough standard going north and the main road going into the Highlands too.
I do think that the numbers are actually set too high anyway likely due to money though.

[A9NWIL]

Thought I might draw a quick map of the A9 scheme progression, with info gleaned from this thread.

I am surprised that this scheme is likely to be next to start construction being a short section between several miles of existing D2. AIUI the busiest sections are further south.

There are 4 schemes at the stage of possibly publishing Made Orders i.e. decision issued -
Pitlochry to Killiecrankie
Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie
Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore
Tomatin to Moy

I think these are the schemes that will go forward to construction in the next 5 years. Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie and Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore will probably be combined. Pitlochry to Killiecrankie has a high cost relative to its length, so Tomatin to Moy is the obvious choice for SG/TS to keep the A9 dualling project moving.

nice

[Altnabreac]

I admire peoples optimism but the further development of either project is unlikely to go ahead as long as we have the current administration and their goals
The best outcome will be for the Westminster government to step in and take both projects forward. However as transport is a devolved matter this will not sit well with certain individual at Holyrood or their ambitions!!
But boy it would be sweet!!

This seems to be entirely at odds with reality! Westminster very unlikely to see value in A9 or A96 dualling.

The one thing that may have some truth is that the A96 may be less of a priority than it used to be to the SNP now they have a stronger base in the Central Belt and the North East and Moray have switched more to voting Conservative.

I could see a Ross led SG prioritising the A96. However it is vanishingly unlikely Douglas Ross will be the next FM.

The A9 dualling still has strong political and symbolic value to show commitment to connecting the entire Highlands so I don’t see that commitment being dropped by the current government though I do expect dualling to take longer.

[clc]

Two or three design and build contracts in next 5 years with the remaining sections built under a PPP contract between 2025-2030 - does that sound realistic?