A9 dualling

[KeithW]

I’m increasingly being drawn toward the idea that large chunks of the project are going to be completed under the DBFO (Design,Build,Finance,Operate) model - especially when there’s going to be huge swathes hitting “shovel ready” at the same time. The question being if this is the case will there be a consortium or Company willing to take on a DBFO like this ?

Design and Build - maybe but including Finance and Operation is not a good idea IMHO. Those are very different business areas with potential conflicts of interest. The finance department will want to keep capital spending down while the Operator is looking at long term maintainability, operational costs and the design being fit for purpose. In industries such as oil and gas companies such as Shell and BP are very careful to maintain a clear difference between capital expenditure and operational budgets (CAPEX and OPEX) and they further tend to use 3rd party designers and builders as that is their main business.

At best with DBFO the price will be inflated as Sovereign States can typically borrow money more cheaply than companies and at worst the Consortium will fail leaving the state to pick up the pieces- See Carillion

[C83]

I’m increasingly being drawn toward the idea that large chunks of the project are going to be completed under the DBFO (Design,Build,Finance,Operate) model - especially when there’s going to be huge swathes hitting “shovel ready” at the same time. The question being if this is the case will there be a consortium or Company willing to take on a DBFO like this ?

Design and Build - maybe but including Finance and Operation is not a good idea IMHO. Those are very different business areas with potential conflicts of interest. The finance department will want to keep capital spending down while the Operator is looking at long term maintainability, operational costs and the design being fit for purpose. In industries such as oil and gas companies such as Shell and BP are very careful to maintain a clear difference between capital expenditure and operational budgets (CAPEX and OPEX) and they further tend to use 3rd party designers and builders as that is their main business.

At best with DBFO the price will be inflated as Sovereign States can typically borrow money more cheaply than companies and at worst the Consortium will fail leaving the state to pick up the pieces- See Carillion

Surely including 'Operate' with 'Design & Build' will improve the latter as a better quality road will need less maintenance over the years. It's the alternative to buy cheap, buy twice. Financing, the Scottish Government can probably borrow more cheaply than any Civil Engineering firm.

[Altnabreac]

Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing has another public event to look at the whole route options on 16 and 17 May 2019
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/dro ... g-options/

More DPEA updates:

Tay Crossing to Ballinluig a reporter has been appointed and 1 of the 18 objections has been withdrawn.

Killiecrankie to Glen Garry also has a reporter (same reporter as the Tay Crossing to Ballinluig interestingly) and 4 of the 188 objections have been withdrawn (Cairngorm National Park Authority objection being a significant withdrawal though).

Tomatin to Moy reporter has suggested Pre-Enquiry meeting will be in early June but no date set yet.

Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore the remaining landowner objections are withdrawn so the hearing session on 11 June won't take place. SSE remain as a statutory objector but negotiations ongoing with 12 June hearing session date set if agreement can't be reached.

Complete
A9 Kincraig - Dalraddy (September 2017)

Under Construction
A9 Luncarty - Pass of Birnam (February 2019)

Contract Let
none

Procurement Underway
none

Made Orders Published
none

Public Local Inquiry (PLI) report with Ministers
A9 Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie (February 2019) https://www.dpea.scotland.gov.uk/CaseDe ... ?ID=119863
2 objections (1 statutory landowner, 1 non-statutory) being dealt with by written submission.

Public Local Inquiry (PLI) report being written
A9 Pitlochry to Killiecrankie (March 2019) https://www.dpea.scotland.gov.uk/CaseDe ... ?ID=119865
2 objections (1 statutory landowner, 1 non-statutory) being dealt with by written submission.

Public Local Inquiry (PLI) Hearing sessions date set
A9 Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore (June 2019) https://www.dpea.scotland.gov.uk/CaseDe ... ?ID=120011
Reporter appointed Jan 19. 2 objections remain, 1 utility, 1 non statutory (Transform Scotland).
Landowner objections withdrawn May 2019. SSE objection partially withdrawn March 2019. Inquiry date proposed for 12 June, may be that all except Transform Scotland withdraw objections leading to cancellation of hearing.

Public Local Inquiry (PLI) pre-inquiry meeting occurred
None

Public Local Inquiry (PLI) ordered
A9 Tomatin to Moy (January 2019) https://www.dpea.scotland.gov.uk/CaseDe ... ?id=120174
Reporter appointed March 2019. 11 objections remain, 8 landowners, 2 utility, 1 non statutory (Transform Scotland).
A9 Killiecrankie to Glen Garry (March 2019) - https://www.dpea.scotland.gov.uk/CaseDe ... ?ID=120283
Reporter appointed April 2019. 189 objections remain, 17 statutory and 171 non statutory.
A9 Tay Crossing to Ballinluig (March 2019) - https://www.dpea.scotland.gov.uk/CaseDe ... ?ID=120312
Reporter appointed April 2019. 18 objections remain, 9 statutory and 9 non statutory.

Dalraddy to Slochd and Crubenmore to Kincraig expected to be going to PLI in "Spring 2019" in TS letter to Network Rail from October 2018.

Draft Orders published - Exhibition feedback published
A9 Dalraddy to Slochd (September 2018) - Exhibition responses published October 2018

Draft Orders published - Exhibition held
A9 Crubenmore to Kincraig (October 2018) - https://www.transport.gov.scot/publicat ... -dualling/

Draft Orders published
none

DMRB Stage 3 exhibition held (Interim detailed design consultation)
none

DMRB Stage 2 (Preferred Route) designs published
none

Pre Stage 2 Route Design Options exhibition
A9 Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing (March 2019)- https://www.transport.gov.scot/publicat ... -dualling/

Construction Time Estimates:
Luncarty - Pass of Birnam - 22 months
Tay Crossing to Ballinluig 2 - 2.5 years
Pitlochry to Killiecrankie 3 - 3.5 years
Killiecrankie to Glen Garry 3 - 3.5 years
Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie and Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore 3 - 3.5 years
Crubenmore - Kincraig 3.5 years
Dalraddy to Slochd 4.5 years
Tomatin to Moy 2.5 - 3 years

[Truvelo]

Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing has another public event to look at the whole route options on 16 and 17 May 2019
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/dro ... g-options/

Is this event likely to resolve the issue over the at-grade roundabout?

[Altnabreac]

Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing has another public event to look at the whole route options on 16 and 17 May 2019
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/dro ... g-options/

Is this event likely to resolve the issue over the at-grade roundabout?

Well at least one of the options presented will be the winner from the Co-creative process so nothing definitive yet.

I'd expect the new options all to exclude both the roundabout and the tunnel however.

[Euan]

I reckon that if anything stops the dualling of the A9 between Perth and Inverness from being finished "by 2025" it will be the Pass of Birnam - Tay Crossing section. It would still be good to see most of the road dualled by that time though.

[A72]

Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing has another public event to look at the whole route options on 16 and 17 May 2019
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/dro ... g-options/

Is this event likely to resolve the issue over the at-grade roundabout?

Here's hoping.

[Berk]

I reckon that if anything stops the dualling of the A9 between Perth and Inverness from being finished "by 2025" it will be the Pass of Birnam - Tay Crossing section. It would still be good to see most of the road dualled by that time though.

If you think though, the AWPR legal challenges didn’t take all that long (lack of money for the pursuers??). So it could still be on track.

[orudge]

The AWPR route was approved by ministers in 2009, but legal action then held further progress up until 2012. Construction finally started in 2015.

[Glen]

Is this event likely to resolve the issue over the at-grade roundabout?

The community options are going to stay in until the preferred route is selected, just so it looks like they are being considered. But the last exhibitions in March as good as ruled them out (tunnel too expensive and disruptive to build, roundabout doesn't meet the objectives of the A9 Dualling strategy).

[Berk]

So basically, it’s just added another stage to the route selection options. But shouldn’t delay the project, or avoid a GSJ option, hopefully.

[Altnabreac]

Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore looks like Transport Scotland are close to reaching agreement with SSE which would leave the only objector as Transform Scotland.

Would be a third project where the hearing sessions are not required and the first with all statutory objections withdrawn. Good steady progress.

[Berk]

I’ve often heard how “extra resources” were poured into the M74 projects in the 90s.

How did that work, and did it result in less objections being made, or withdrawn sooner??

That motorway got built unbelievably fast.

[Duncan macknight]

I’ve often heard how “extra resources” were poured into the M74 projects in the 90s.

How did that work, and did it result in less objections being made, or withdrawn sooner??

That motorway got built unbelievably fast.

Government of the 1990s commited to upgrade the whole A74 between Millbank and the border to motorway.

All the designing, contracts, investigation for the schemes were all done at the same time to speed things along. Bearing in mind Dunkeld station, Loch faskally and Killiecrankie Battlefield were not in the way so construction progressed very quickly.

I can recommend the Glasgow Motorway Archive M74 Podcast for more detail!

[Euan]

The lack of historical and environmental significance is indeed likely to have been a fair factor in the quick delivery of the entire length of the A74(M) scheme.

Similarly the A9 north of Killiecrankie is likely to progress sooner than most of the dualling between Dunkeld and Killiecrankie. There are still environmental issues which will need to be assessed at places like Drumochter and Slochd, but at least there not as many battlefields to preserve.

[KeithW]

Surely including 'Operate' with 'Design & Build' will improve the latter as a better quality road will need less maintenance over the years. It's the alternative to buy cheap, buy twice. Financing, the Scottish Government can probably borrow more cheaply than any Civil Engineering firm.

IF the consortium that gets the contract is still around in 20 years it might but there are a few things to consider.

1) Such consortia are typically limited companies and they rise and fall - see Carillion.
2) Such operate/maintain contracts usually have escalation clauses to cover inflationary risks and operation does not include replacement at end of design life.
3) The consortium is expecting to make a profit on the operate and maintenance phase.
4) Operational expenditure (Opex) and Capital Expenditure (Capex) are usually separate pots and even on projects like offshore oil rigs getting extra Capex to offset future Opex almost never really happens.

With any large scale project long term the operating and maintenance costs will exceed the initial expenditure. As my old manager (from Louisiana) used to say.

"Its not the cost of the pup that's the problem son it's the cost of the pupkeep"

By all means contract out the maintenance but do it on a renewable basis so at the the end of a contract period you can kick the bums out if you reckon they are doing a bad job.

[Nwallace]

I remember the Co tractors signs advertising their completion of the work well ahead of schedule.

I'd suspect the geography of annadale and evandale were favourable too, except for the pinch point at the railway bridge (the name and location escape me) most of the route is pretty wide and open muir or wide dales that would probably be straths rsther than glens.

The A9 on the other hand follows narrow glens with the odd Strath, so route options are constrained particularly where populated. The pass of birnham is just an extreme example of the constraints.

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[Ronnie]

I'd suspect the geography of annadale and evandale were favourable too, except for the pinch point at the railway bridge (the name and location escape me) most of the route is pretty wide and open muir or wide dales that would probably be straths rsther than glens.

Harthope Viaduct.

[Nwallace]

I'd suspect the geography of annadale and evandale were favourable too, except for the pinch point at the railway bridge (the name and location escape me) most of the route is pretty wide and open muir or wide dales that would probably be straths rsther than glens.

Harthope Viaduct.

Ta!

Google Images search produces a good range of road pics from it's guises.

I have a memory of being on the A74 and seeing the motorway built up on the hillside, can't remember if that was on the run down beattock though or somewhere else

[B9127]

As Dalraddy to Slochd has an estimated construction period of 4.5 years and it took Luncarty to Pass of Birnam 2 years from made orders to construction start that must take the 2025 completion date for the whole project to somewhere around 2026/27 - am I correct?