A9 dualling

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jackal
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by jackal »

clc wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 15:20 Two or three design and build contracts in next 5 years with the remaining sections built under a PPP contract between 2025-2030 - does that sound realistic?
They're spending ~£300m on the A9 up to 2026, so maybe one or two schemes. I don't find it at all credible that they'd commit to £4bn-£5bn in PFI to complete the remaining schemes (£2.5bn construction cost plus financing etc). PFI has failed badly in Scotland and is widely disliked, including in nationalist circles. Using it on such an unprecedented scale for road schemes of all things would paint a massive target sign on the government.
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Re: A9 dualling

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Mikehannah wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 16:35If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.
Unfortunately the traffic levels on the A9 are not high enough to merit dualling, and the road's safety record doesn't make it bad enough to be a high priority either. Dualling the A9 was an entirely political decision. The project was even assessed against invented criteria in order to give it a positive cost/benefit ratio. If the A9 dualling had been assessed on the same criteria as all other road projects, as it should have been, it would have been shown to be entirely uneconomical.

The A9 carries about 9000 vehicles a day (9k AADT). England is full of much busier single carriageway trunk roads that connect far bigger places and which have no prospect of dualling work. See the A69 Newcastle-Carlisle (12k AADT), A64 Malton-Scarborough (10k AADT), A35 Dorchester-Puddletown (35k AADT) or A27 Warren Road in Worthing (35k AADT) to pick four of the many available examples where dualling is not even being considered at present.

I realise that this is an emotive subject and for the Highlands the A9 is a lifeline - but compared to other major roads it's really very quiet, and there is no rational case for spending £3bn improving it. The money is better spent elsewhere.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Mikehannah »

I would like to see the basis for your figures of 9000.
I travel both roads regularly and given the traffic density it is considerably higher number of vehicles .
However I have not sat in a lay by with a clip board.
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Re: A9 dualling

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You can see AADT numbers yourself on SABRE maps.
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Re: A9 dualling

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Re: A9 dualling

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Mikehannah wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 23:28 I would like to see the basis for your figures of 9000.
I travel both roads regularly and given the traffic density it is considerably higher number of vehicles .
However I have not sat in a lay by with a clip board.
No problem! You can access official traffic counts for most roads in the UK on this website through SABRE Maps, including graphs showing the changes in traffic level over the last 20 years. Pick a location and then click "Traffic Counts ON" in the toolbar. The little green icons that appear all over the map can then be clicked to see the information.

Here's the count for the A9 near Dalwhinnie, to illustrate how it works.
a9dalwhinnie.png
Those numbers are extracted from the annual road traffic statistics published by the DfT.
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Re: A9 dualling

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Chris5156 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 22:47 The A9 carries about 9000 vehicles a day (9k AADT). England is full of much busier single carriageway trunk roads that connect far bigger places and which have no prospect of dualling work.
I would just add that in addition to these examples that are still trunk roads, a long list of other roads in England were detrunked in the noughties following a review around 1998-9. Though it was not expressed in quite these terms, you could say that the reason was that there was no chance of money being found for comprehensive improvement for them for several decades at least.

Scotland has 60% as much land area as England, half as much mileage of trunk roads, and 10% as much population, so it's not surprising that, outside the central belt, its roads carry less traffic, despite tourism.
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Re: A9 dualling

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Mikehannah wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 23:28 I would like to see the basis for your figures of 9000.
I travel both roads regularly and given the traffic density it is considerably higher number of vehicles .
However I have not sat in a lay by with a clip board.
https://www.sabre-roads.org.uk/maps/ind ... f_pt=30824
Obviously daily traffic flows increase closer to Perth and Inverness, but the highest traffic levels on any of the single carriageway (between Perth and Inverness) is just under 20k, near Dunkeld.
For reference, AADF on the Kessock Bridge is around 30k and the Perth bypass is similar.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Glen »

Mikehannah wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 16:35 Yes the current administration kicked off the projects and have dragged their feet ever since. The length of time to take each section to the of “ Made orders@ is frankly embarrassing in my opinion.
All the schemes, with one notable exception, have reached draft orders being published in pretty swift time, how long the statutory process takes after that is beyond the control of the promotor.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by clc »

Chris5156 wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 23:40
Mikehannah wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 23:28 I would like to see the basis for your figures of 9000.
I travel both roads regularly and given the traffic density it is considerably higher number of vehicles .
However I have not sat in a lay by with a clip board.
No problem! You can access official traffic counts for most roads in the UK on this website through SABRE Maps, including graphs showing the changes in traffic level over the last 20 years. Pick a location and then click "Traffic Counts ON" in the toolbar. The little green icons that appear all over the map can then be clicked to see the information.

Here's the count for the A9 near Dalwhinnie, to illustrate how it works.
a9dalwhinnie.png

Those numbers are extracted from the annual road traffic statistics published by the DfT.
I see the A77 around Ayr carries over 30,000 vehicles per day between Whitletts and Holmston yet plans to dual were shelved when the A9 became the political priority.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by DaStreetsweep »

I appreciate that some are saying there is no real compelling argument for fully dualling the A9, especially with a £3 billion price tag.

If you actually remove the 3 largest sections to be dualled and focus on the 6 remaining smaller sections, this could potentially save over £2billion.

If you dual the 6 remaining sections under 7 miles each, that haven’t begun as yet, that would cost in the region of a further £750 million - very rough figures.

That combined with the section that is already complete along with the one that’ll soon be complete would see around 40 of the 80 miles dualled, and 70 of the 110 mile stretch in total. This would make a monumental difference.

This alone would be a great compromise, as it would increase the overall speed and greatly improve the safety aspect too, whilst saving a small fortune.

That money in turn could be reinvested in the A82, A77, and A75 etc etc.
Dual the A9, dual and bypass the A77, and bypass Crocketford and Springholm on the A75.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Mikehannah »

I could not get the map to work maybe something to do with using a mobile phone. My experience and this is backed by ADT figures I dug up from 2010 indicated that vehicle traffic flowing out of inverness in both directions was around 22500 and flowing in/out of Perth was around 30000.
Which if you drive the route is consistent with observation. Dalwinnie is close to the centre of the road and is around the quietest. So you figure of 10k does not surprise me!! Their is significant commuter traffic flowing into Inverness from as far as around Aviemore. And the same from Pitlochry in the south. Which is commensurate with the numbers I dug up and my own observations.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Ruperts Trooper »

Mikehannah wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 23:28 I would like to see the basis for your figures of 9000.
I travel both roads regularly and given the traffic density it is considerably higher number of vehicles .
However I have not sat in a lay by with a clip board.
Tourist traffic increases significantly during the short summer season - and weekend traffic levels will be well above AADT - but then all roads have varying peak patterns.
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Re: A9 dualling

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Mikehannah wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 04:15 I could not get the map to work maybe something to do with using a mobile phone. My experience and this is backed by ADT figures I dug up from 2010 indicated that vehicle traffic flowing out of inverness in both directions was around 22500 and flowing in/out of Perth was around 30000.
Which if you drive the route is consistent with observation. Dalwinnie is close to the centre of the road and is around the quietest. So you figure of 10k does not surprise me!! Their is significant commuter traffic flowing into Inverness from as far as around Aviemore. And the same from Pitlochry in the south. Which is commensurate with the numbers I dug up and my own observations.
At the risk of stating the obvious the sections near Perth and Inverness with high AADTs are already dualled and of course Bankfoot is nearing completion. The highest AADT on an S2 stretch I can find is no more than 13,000 on the stretch between Dunkeld and Ballinluig, albeit no doubt rather higher south of Dunkeld as per Glen's comment. Everywhere north of Pitlochry as far as the D2 near Inverness seems to be in the 8,000-10,000 AADT range.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Nwallace »

matt-thepie wrote:
Mikehannah wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 16:35 If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.
I do not disagree with the gentleman who supports improvements in the A82 but I do not think it sees the volume that the two north roads two. The point is we should be able to do all three.
Yes the current administration kicked off the projects and have dragged their feet ever since. The length of time to take each section to the of “ Made orders@ is frankly embarrassing in my opinion.
The A27, A31, A303 and A35 disagree with you.
Are they anywhere near as strategically important as the A9?

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Re: A9 dualling

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Nwallace wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 01:08
matt-thepie wrote:
Mikehannah wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 16:35 If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago.
The traffic volume merits it alone.
I do not disagree with the gentleman who supports improvements in the A82 but I do not think it sees the volume that the two north roads two. The point is we should be able to do all three.
Yes the current administration kicked off the projects and have dragged their feet ever since. The length of time to take each section to the of “ Made orders@ is frankly embarrassing in my opinion.
The A27, A31, A303 and A35 disagree with you.
Are they anywhere near as strategically important as the A9?
Mikehannah specifically claimed "If the A9 and A96 had been in England they would have been dialled a long time ago. The traffic volume merits it alone." Some of us were seeking to correct his false facts rather than to address any question of whether dualling might be merited on other grounds.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Ronnie »

When thinking about average daily figures remember the nature of road is that its very quiet between about 20:00 and 06:00 and almost dead in the small hours with most of the traffic then being HGVs. So to look at a 24hr average figure hides the busier parts of the day when traffic flow is heaviest.
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by belgarion »

The A9 and A96 are well past the time they should have been dualled. I've used both many times, we often holiday in the West of Scotland and visit family in Aberdeen, and its become clear that as much that the UK is London centric when it comes to government spending, Scotland is the Central belt centric, it's heavily biased to Glasgow/Edinburgh, its only very recently that Aberdeen got the AWPR when it would have done most good back in the 80's when oil was booming and providing a lot of income to the whole country.
Its almost like the Scottish government thinks that tourism ends in Edinburgh.

As for environmental grounds being used, this is a non-starter as the vehicles which are using the roads are over time getting cleaner and if the ICE ban happens this will only accelerate.

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Re: A9 dualling

Post by Chris5156 »

Ronnie wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 09:57When thinking about average daily figures remember the nature of road is that its very quiet between about 20:00 and 06:00 and almost dead in the small hours with most of the traffic then being HGVs. So to look at a 24hr average figure hides the busier parts of the day when traffic flow is heaviest.
While that is true, it is also true for every other road in the UK. AADT is the measurement used for all roads, so when I quoted a figure of 35,000 AADT on the A35 near Dorchester, that figure is subject to the exact same caveats you describe above.

In other words, yes, AADT has the limitation you describe, but thankfully it applies across the board, so we are still comparing apples with apples when we look up the traffic figures on the A9 and find that, on the basis of the volume of traffic alone, there is no case whatsoever to prioritise it for dualling!
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Re: A9 dualling

Post by C83 »

belgarion wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 13:32 The A9 and A96 are well past the time they should have been dualled. I've used both many times, we often holiday in the West of Scotland and visit family in Aberdeen, and its become clear that as much that the UK is London centric when it comes to government spending, Scotland is the Central belt centric, it's heavily biased to Glasgow/Edinburgh, its only very recently that Aberdeen got the AWPR when it would have done most good back in the 80's when oil was booming and providing a lot of income to the whole country.
Its almost like the Scottish government thinks that tourism ends in Edinburgh.

As for environmental grounds being used, this is a non-starter as the vehicles which are using the roads are over time getting cleaner and if the ICE ban happens this will only accelerate.

Vince
There is plenty of questionable infrastructure in the Central Belt which have to cope with much higher traffic volumes. The M8 is only recently completed, and significant parts are still only 2 lanes each way, similarly for the M80. The A8000 took over 40 years after the Forth Bridge to be replaced. A Rosyth Bypass on the A985 is long overdue, there are numerous other examples where a bypass or upgrade would be more than welcome.

The A9 and A96 being dual carriageway throughout became somewhat political rather than practical. The Nairn Bypass, or dual carriageway south of Pitlochry are reasonably easy to justify. Dual carriageway for the whole of both roads, when competing for funding with other priorities, A82 & A83 or on railways more electrification and double track on the Highland Mainline is harder.
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