A9 dualling

[Nwallace]

National transport strstedy 2 consultation is ongoing, only found out about it because it appeared in the feed about the 3rd stage of the transport bill (LEZ, WPL, PT and PP)

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[A9Dan]

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/1 ... -hypocrisy

From the Green party conference:

As the SNP and Green conferences overlapped today, the Greens took the opportunity to attack the SNP’s environmental policy with key party figures putting the SNP under fire on the issue and members urging MSPs to take a strong stance on the climate emergency in budget negotiations.

The article is mainly about oil extraction but I can see the A9/A96 dualling becoming an issue when it comes to the budget negotiations (like this year with the workplace parking levy) so they could end up blocked even if the Scottish Government decide to press head. With the current political situation and the climate emergency taking a very high priority in budget negotiations, I'm not even convinced we will see A96 Inverness to Nairn.

[A9NWIL]

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/1 ... -hypocrisy

From the Green party conference:

As the SNP and Green conferences overlapped today, the Greens took the opportunity to attack the SNP’s environmental policy with key party figures putting the SNP under fire on the issue and members urging MSPs to take a strong stance on the climate emergency in budget negotiations.

The article is mainly about oil extraction but I can see the A9/A96 dualling becoming an issue when it comes to the budget negotiations (like this year with the workplace parking levy) so they could end up blocked even if the Scottish Government decide to press head. With the current political situation and the climate emergency taking a very high priority in budget negotiations, I'm not even convinced we will see A96 Inverness to Nairn.

Could they not use another party to pass the A9/A96 schemes?

[Altnabreac]

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/1 ... -hypocrisy

From the Green party conference:

As the SNP and Green conferences overlapped today, the Greens took the opportunity to attack the SNP’s environmental policy with key party figures putting the SNP under fire on the issue and members urging MSPs to take a strong stance on the climate emergency in budget negotiations.

The article is mainly about oil extraction but I can see the A9/A96 dualling becoming an issue when it comes to the budget negotiations (like this year with the workplace parking levy) so they could end up blocked even if the Scottish Government decide to press head. With the current political situation and the climate emergency taking a very high priority in budget negotiations, I'm not even convinced we will see A96 Inverness to Nairn.

Could they not use another party to pass the A9/A96 schemes?

Conservatives are the most likely to be infavour of the A9 / A96 but least likely to work with the SNP (at least post 2011, they did co-operate on budgets in the 2007-2011 SNP minority government).

Labour operate on the Bain principle (oppose anything SNP in favour of, if even if it is Labour policy). Even without Bain principle the A9 and A96 lead to very marginal areas for Labour so it wouldn't be a political priority for them.

So Lib Dems are the best prospect and some kind of combined A9 / A96 / reduced ferry fares to Orkney / Shetland is probably the most likely combination to succeed.

The other possibility might be a corridor study approach type plan for dualling the A9 and investing in the HML agreed with Scottish Greens where the completion date is pushed out to 2030 (which would suit SNP anyway as its easier to deliver) combined with an agreement for a much larger investment in the HML at the same time with the A96 east of Elgin postponed beyond 2030.

Something like the http://intercityexpress.transformscotland.org.uk/ project to be committed to on same timescales as A9 dualling would probably get the Greens onboard.

[A9Dan]

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/1 ... -hypocrisy

From the Green party conference:

As the SNP and Green conferences overlapped today, the Greens took the opportunity to attack the SNP’s environmental policy with key party figures putting the SNP under fire on the issue and members urging MSPs to take a strong stance on the climate emergency in budget negotiations.

The article is mainly about oil extraction but I can see the A9/A96 dualling becoming an issue when it comes to the budget negotiations (like this year with the workplace parking levy) so they could end up blocked even if the Scottish Government decide to press head. With the current political situation and the climate emergency taking a very high priority in budget negotiations, I'm not even convinced we will see A96 Inverness to Nairn.

Could they not use another party to pass the A9/A96 schemes?

It's not so much about passing the individual schemes but more about being able to pass the Scottish Government's budget in general. This year, the only party which was willing to agree to pass the budget was the Green Party but only after long negotiations and only after the Government agreed to give councils the power to introduce the workplace parking levy, I can't see any of the other parties voting for a SNP budget and in light of the climate emergency, it will be very difficult to get Green Support if there are plans to spend significant amounts on road upgrades.

[A9Dan]

So Lib Dems are the best prospect and some kind of combined A9 / A96 / reduced ferry fares to Orkney / Shetland is probably the most likely combination to succeed. rd.

Isn't LibDem policy fairly close to that of the Greens though as regards road building?

[Altnabreac]

So Lib Dems are the best prospect and some kind of combined A9 / A96 / reduced ferry fares to Orkney / Shetland is probably the most likely combination to succeed. rd.

Isn't LibDem policy fairly close to that of the Greens though as regards road building?

2016 Lib Dem Holyrood manifesto has lots on low carbon transport, rail electrification etc but also says:

Even with the best will in the world Scotland will not be able to have low-carbon transport everywhere straightaway. We will need to continue to invest in other forms of transport to secure safety, regional connections and social equity. We will:
● Make strategic investments to improve roads safety and quality, for example taking forward plans to
improve the A82, A9 and A96 amongst others;
● Increase the support for ferry routes serving the Northern Isles, including a cut of 50 per cent in ferry fares between the Northern Isles and the mainland, matching the fare cuts recently enacted on the West Coast and reversing the decline in support for the northern routes;
● Reintroduce the Air Discount Scheme for business travel from the islands;
● Retain the concessionary bus pass.

So they're certainly not opposed in principle to investment in roads in general or the A9 / A96 in particular. They would probably need some electoral bones thrown in their direction - rail electrification, Northern Isles ferry subsidies etc.

[A9Dan]

So Lib Dems are the best prospect and some kind of combined A9 / A96 / reduced ferry fares to Orkney / Shetland is probably the most likely combination to succeed. rd.

Isn't LibDem policy fairly close to that of the Greens though as regards road building?

2016 Lib Dem Holyrood manifesto has lots on low carbon transport, rail electrification etc but also says:

Even with the best will in the world Scotland will not be able to have low-carbon transport everywhere straightaway. We will need to continue to invest in other forms of transport to secure safety, regional connections and social equity. We will:
● Make strategic investments to improve roads safety and quality, for example taking forward plans to
improve the A82, A9 and A96 amongst others;
● Increase the support for ferry routes serving the Northern Isles, including a cut of 50 per cent in ferry fares between the Northern Isles and the mainland, matching the fare cuts recently enacted on the West Coast and reversing the decline in support for the northern routes;
● Reintroduce the Air Discount Scheme for business travel from the islands;
● Retain the concessionary bus pass.

So they're certainly not opposed in principle to investment in roads in general or the A9 / A96 in particular. They would probably need some electoral bones thrown in their direction - rail electrification, Northern Isles ferry subsidies etc.

That was before the climate emergency declaration though which has been a big game changer. I don't even remember the Greens shouting too loudly about A9/A96 back then it before then and indeed they approved a budget which included Luncarty to Pass of Birnam.

[Altnabreac]

Isn't LibDem policy fairly close to that of the Greens though as regards road building?

2016 Lib Dem Holyrood manifesto has lots on low carbon transport, rail electrification etc but also says:

Even with the best will in the world Scotland will not be able to have low-carbon transport everywhere straightaway. We will need to continue to invest in other forms of transport to secure safety, regional connections and social equity. We will:
● Make strategic investments to improve roads safety and quality, for example taking forward plans to
improve the A82, A9 and A96 amongst others;
● Increase the support for ferry routes serving the Northern Isles, including a cut of 50 per cent in ferry fares between the Northern Isles and the mainland, matching the fare cuts recently enacted on the West Coast and reversing the decline in support for the northern routes;
● Reintroduce the Air Discount Scheme for business travel from the islands;
● Retain the concessionary bus pass.

So they're certainly not opposed in principle to investment in roads in general or the A9 / A96 in particular. They would probably need some electoral bones thrown in their direction - rail electrification, Northern Isles ferry subsidies etc.

That was before the climate emergency declaration though which has been a big game changer. I don't even remember the Greens shouting too loudly about A9/A96 back then it before then and indeed they approved a budget which included Luncarty to Pass of Birnam.

Agreed, though Lib Dem strongholds in Highlands would probably be more in favour of A9 investment than Green voters in general. A96 more marginal to Lib Dem political priorities.

Whether it is Lib Dems or Greens signing off the budget I think it will have to be much more as part of a delayed programme that splits investment between Road and Rail on the A9 corridor.

An investment programme of:
Inverkeithing - Perth new rail line on the M90 corridor
Newtonmore - Kincraig HML double track
Culloden - Moy HML double track
Perth station remodelling
Perth - Inverness electrification.

Alongside the A9 dualling that's probably an extra £2Bn and would effectively replace the A96 dualling east of Elgin in the capital programme up to 2030 with no net cost increase.

I could see that sort of programme being agreed by either Greens or Lib Dems.

[A9Dan]

An investment programme of:
Inverkeithing - Perth new rail line on the M90 corridor
Newtonmore - Kincraig HML double track
Culloden - Moy HML double track
Perth station remodelling
Perth - Inverness electrification.

Alongside the A9 dualling that's probably an extra £2Bn and would effectively replace the A96 dualling east of Elgin in the capital programme up to 2030 with no net cost increase.

I could see that sort of programme being agreed by either Greens or Lib Dems.

Wouldn't the Greens just argue that if all the above rail upgrades went ahead, investment in the A9 would not be needed since traffic (and hence CO2) would have been reduced and that encouraging more traffic onto the A9 by dualling would be contrary to climate policy? I believe this is one of the reasons they are wanting the schemes cancelled now. There is also a risk of the Greens losing some of their core voters if they later decided to support the schemes they had previously been strongly opposed to.

[Nwallace]

The north boats:
RET is in progress for Shetland
Pentland ferries have blocked RET for Orkney.


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[B9127]

Quick calculation - there are currently 13 Scotrail trains a day from Perth to Inverness and assuming Class 43 5 car sets that's a capacity of around 4500 passengers each way - if you add on LNER at around 500 per train that gives a total of approx. 5500 - even if you double the track all the way and double the trains that only gives around 11/12k per day north and south bound - current far is around £30 single - I could get there and back for around that so I dont think the rail options would take a lot of traffic off the A9 IMHO

[Altnabreac]

The north boats:
RET is in progress for Shetland
Pentland ferries have blocked RET for Orkney.


Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

RET is most certainly not in progress for Shetland because of course RET would lead to an increase in fares as Shetland is a very long way from Aberdeen. Shetland fares are thus being reduced to well below RET.

[Euan]

Quick calculation - there are currently 13 Scotrail trains a day from Perth to Inverness and assuming Class 43 5 car sets that's a capacity of around 4500 passengers each way - if you add on LNER at around 500 per train that gives a total of approx. 5500 - even if you double the track all the way and double the trains that only gives around 11/12k per day north and south bound - current far is around £30 single - I could get there and back for around that so I dont think the rail options would take a lot of traffic off the A9 IMHO

There is also the lack of electrification to consider on the Highland Main Line, so improving the rail service without electrifying the line would negate the reason for prioritising the railway over the A9.

[Nwallace]

Quick calculation - there are currently 13 Scotrail trains a day from Perth to Inverness and assuming Class 43 5 car sets that's a capacity of around 4500 passengers each way - if you add on LNER at around 500 per train that gives a total of approx. 5500 - even if you double the track all the way and double the trains that only gives around 11/12k per day north and south bound - current far is around £30 single - I could get there and back for around that so I dont think the rail options would take a lot of traffic off the A9 IMHO

There is also the lack of electrification to consider on the Highland Main Line, so improving the rail service without electrifying the line would negate the reason for prioritising the railway over the A9.

As I remember it the HML will be 4 car HSTs, think any 5 car trains making it to Inverness will be via the GNSR.

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[Nwallace]

The north boats:
RET is in progress for Shetland
Pentland ferries have blocked RET for Orkney.


Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

RET is most certainly not in progress for Shetland because of course RET would lead to an increase in fares as Shetland is a very long way from Aberdeen. Shetland fares are thus being reduced to well below RET.

Sorry yes, it's a 20% discount on fares from Aberdeen and Kirkwall to Lerwick.

Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

[Altnabreac]

The north boats:
RET is in progress for Shetland
Pentland ferries have blocked RET for Orkney.


Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

RET is most certainly not in progress for Shetland because of course RET would lead to an increase in fares as Shetland is a very long way from Aberdeen. Shetland fares are thus being reduced to well below RET.

Sorry yes, it's a 20% discount on fares from Aberdeen and Kirkwall to Lerwick.

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Just always annoys me a bit when people from Shetland complain about the fares as if for some insane reason someone built a 150 mile tunnel from Fraserburgh to Sumburgh the fuel / mileage costs for driving through the tunnel would be higher than the ferry fare.

[A9NWIL]

2016 Lib Dem Holyrood manifesto has lots on low carbon transport, rail electrification etc but also says:



So they're certainly not opposed in principle to investment in roads in general or the A9 / A96 in particular. They would probably need some electoral bones thrown in their direction - rail electrification, Northern Isles ferry subsidies etc.

That was before the climate emergency declaration though which has been a big game changer. I don't even remember the Greens shouting too loudly about A9/A96 back then it before then and indeed they approved a budget which included Luncarty to Pass of Birnam.

Agreed, though Lib Dem strongholds in Highlands would probably be more in favour of A9 investment than Green voters in general. A96 more marginal to Lib Dem political priorities.

Whether it is Lib Dems or Greens signing off the budget I think it will have to be much more as part of a delayed programme that splits investment between Road and Rail on the A9 corridor.

An investment programme of:
Inverkeithing - Perth new rail line on the M90 corridor
Newtonmore - Kincraig HML double track
Culloden - Moy HML double track
Perth station remodelling
Perth - Inverness electrification.

Alongside the A9 dualling that's probably an extra £2Bn and would effectively replace the A96 dualling east of Elgin in the capital programme up to 2030 with no net cost increase.

I could see that sort of programme being agreed by either Greens or Lib Dems.

Ah so A9 + rail get priority over A96? Thats not so bad actually as the A9 is the main route into the highlands after all. Thats if they sign such a plan off.

[A9NWIL]

An investment programme of:
Inverkeithing - Perth new rail line on the M90 corridor
Newtonmore - Kincraig HML double track
Culloden - Moy HML double track
Perth station remodelling
Perth - Inverness electrification.

Alongside the A9 dualling that's probably an extra £2Bn and would effectively replace the A96 dualling east of Elgin in the capital programme up to 2030 with no net cost increase.

I could see that sort of programme being agreed by either Greens or Lib Dems.

Wouldn't the Greens just argue that if all the above rail upgrades went ahead, investment in the A9 would not be needed since traffic (and hence CO2) would have been reduced and that encouraging more traffic onto the A9 by dualling would be contrary to climate policy? I believe this is one of the reasons they are wanting the schemes cancelled now. There is also a risk of the Greens losing some of their core voters if they later decided to support the schemes they had previously been strongly opposed to.

The issue is that I bet freight wont increase on rail as much as they would like, on top of that you wont see holiday makers move over to rail in Scotland that easily, the car is the best way to go to see many places that you simply cant get a train to.

[A9NWIL]

Quick calculation - there are currently 13 Scotrail trains a day from Perth to Inverness and assuming Class 43 5 car sets that's a capacity of around 4500 passengers each way - if you add on LNER at around 500 per train that gives a total of approx. 5500 - even if you double the track all the way and double the trains that only gives around 11/12k per day north and south bound - current far is around £30 single - I could get there and back for around that so I dont think the rail options would take a lot of traffic off the A9 IMHO

Good point they would have to force a cap and a reduction on rail prices all at the same time, you would need it to be £10 single and £15 return or there about to actually win people over to rail travel!