Oxford to Cambridge expressway

[fras]

Much as an ex-railwayman would I like to see the East-West Railway built, it will not be a real substitute for the Expressway. First of all it will mostly only cater for passenger traffic, the freight along it will be minimal, and not capture from roads. It is naive in the extreme to think that rail will substitute for roads for trunk movement. In large cities, yes, rail (including light rail) is best but that argument was won many years ago. For trunk haulage, rail already has the bulk movements and pushed away all other business in the 80s. There were actually some in the British Rail Board who wanted rid of ALL freight. It was Ed Burkhardt who said, on taking over most of railfreight and formed EWS, that "BR poisoned the well". And to be honest, that poison is still in the system, such that very few companies are prepared to place merchandise business with the freight operators.

[ManomayLR]

As I often say, it's worth having a blue line.

[KeithW]

Much as an ex-railwayman would I like to see the East-West Railway built, it will not be a real substitute for the Expressway. First of all it will mostly only cater for passenger traffic, the freight along it will be minimal, and not capture from roads. It is naive in the extreme to think that rail will substitute for roads for trunk movement. In large cities, yes, rail (including light rail) is best but that argument was won many years ago. For trunk haulage, rail already has the bulk movements and pushed away all other business in the 80s. There were actually some in the British Rail Board who wanted rid of ALL freight. It was Ed Burkhardt who said, on taking over most of railfreight and formed EWS, that "BR poisoned the well". And to be honest, that poison is still in the system, such that very few companies are prepared to place merchandise business with the freight operators.

As I understand it freight traffic particularly from Felixstowe and East Anglia is a major part of the business case for the East West rail project. While there is provision for passenger traffic and it will be used its initial use will be largely limited to local commuter services as was the case on the old Varsity line. Even in phase 2 they are only proposing 2 through passenger trains per hour. What we are likely to see is increasing numbers of containers on trains running between multimodal terminals taking HGV traffic off the A14 , M25, M4 and A421. Freight is rather less time sensitive than passenger service so much can travel outside peak passenger hours. The big problem for rail freight in recent years has been the rapid decline of coal traffic which will continue as more coal fired power stations are taken out of service. However that is being at least partly offset by increased intermodal traffic.

I quite agree that EWR is no substitute for a better road link but it is a decent adjunct, we need both.

[JohnnyMo]

As I often say, it's worth having a blue line.

That would be like a red rag to a bull, the local are up in arms as it is.

[jackal]

As the government has not said anything about the expressway since the election one must assume that the policy is still to 'review' it. Despite rumours of it having been cancelled, the only evidence of this I can find are pre-election quotes from John Howell, Conservative MP for Henley, who is not a transport minister and appears to have merely been speculating about the result of the review (https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/key ... 00.article).

[Bryn666]

Expect lots of big projects to vanish either to prop up HS2 or Brexit over the next few years.

They've overcommitted themselves and row-backs will follow.

At least connecting Cambridge to the M1 should be a priority though.

[KeithW]

As the government has not said anything about the expressway since the election one must assume that the policy is still to 'review' it. Despite rumours of it having been cancelled, the only evidence of this I can find are pre-election quotes from John Howell, Conservative MP for Henley, who is not a transport minister and appears to have merely been speculating about the result of the review (https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/key ... 00.article).

Well given that the new Government has not yet existed for a full month including the Xmas/New Year break I am hardly surprised that no announcements have been made yet. Before the election there was already talk of a review.

[NICK 647063]

I suspect the government will want to spread the money out around the whole country, do remember this expressway is to open up huge areas of land for development, although the situation isn’t ideal at present Cambridge will get connected over to the M1 once the A428 is sorted which will allow dual carriageway access between Cambridge and the M1, do remember the area around the Bedford has seen quite a few new roads, all the new A421 and the new A14 not far away while some areas see very little investment, I seriously think this idea will be scrapped.

[andrewwoods]

So if this does get scrapped, what's the best thing to do to sort out the A34 from the M4 to the M40?

Andrew

[jackal]

Expect lots of big projects to vanish either to prop up HS2 or Brexit over the next few years.

They've overcommitted themselves and row-backs will follow.

I don't know about that. Borrowing costs are low and government spending plans are very modest compared to those advanced by other parties at the election. Any Brexit shock could be seen as a good excuse for Keynesian deficit spending.

[jackal]

So if this does get scrapped, what's the best thing to do to sort out the A34 from the M4 to the M40?

Indeed. The Botley problem does not go away even if the expressway does.

[owen b]

I suspect the government will want to spread the money out around the whole country,

Borrowing costs are low and government spending plans are very modest compared to those advanced by other parties at the election. Any Brexit shock could be seen as a good excuse for Keynesian deficit spending.

What money? HS2 is going to cost the wrong side of £100 billion, the B word is going to cost the economy tens of billions a year more, Keynesian deficit spending has already been spent both in the good years and even more so in the bad years after the financial crash so the country's now £2 trillion in debt, money doesn't grow on trees and has to be paid back even if borrowing costs are cheap, and in any case, what happens when and if borrowing costs aren't cheap any more?

Sorry to be gloomy, but I don't consider the Tory economic plan to be much more credible than the Labour one. Something has to give I fear .

For what it's worth I think Caxton Gibbet to Black Cat should go ahead but I have my doubts about the rest of it.

[thatapanydude]

My take on this is that I don’t want an expressway only to open up that part of Bucks for development as it’s a rather nice place of countryside which should not be ruined just for the sake of houses.

Instead build East West Rail properly and force a shift of model onto the trains or continue using the A43/A14 or A421, which to my mind isn’t that bad whenever I travel from Black Cat to A34 Oxford.

[A320Driver]

Slightly off-topic, but in relation to the “south-west expressway” A30/A303 schemes that are at the end of the planning process, what do we reckon will happen?

According to the Planning Inspectorate:
Sparkford - decision overdue/imminent
Carland - Chiverton - decision in Feb
Stonehenge - decision in April

[c2R]

continue using the A43/A14 or A421, which to my mind isn’t that bad whenever I travel from Black Cat to A34 Oxford.

It is that bad... to travel from Cambridge to Oxford is 50% longer via the M11/M25/M40 but journey times are a faster and more reliable to use the motorway route....

[owen b]

My take on this is that I don’t want an expressway only to open up that part of Bucks for development as it’s a rather nice place of countryside which should not be ruined just for the sake of houses.

Yes, I had a good look at the big study document that was issued a while back and it seemed to be making a virtue of creating a new development corridor through the middle of a relatively undeveloped and unspoiled area. I commented on this thread at the time that I had my doubts that a new D2 would be sufficient for the millions of extra people expected to move into the study area and that I'd rather the expressway took a line closer to existing urban areas, either north around Buckingham / Bicester or preferably south around Aylesbury.

[thatapanydude]

My take on this is that I don’t want an expressway only to open up that part of Bucks for development as it’s a rather nice place of countryside which should not be ruined just for the sake of houses.

Yes, I had a good look at the big study document that was issued a while back and it seemed to be making a virtue of creating a new development corridor through the middle of a relatively undeveloped and unspoiled area. I commented on this thread at the time that I had my doubts that a new D2 would be sufficient for the millions of extra people expected to move into the study area and that I'd rather the expressway took a line closer to existing urban areas, either north around Buckingham / Bicester or preferably south around Aylesbury.

I would rather an online upgrade of the A421 to the A43. That should suffice and stop any need for building for the sake of it on greenfield.

[thatapanydude]

continue using the A43/A14 or A421, which to my mind isn’t that bad whenever I travel from Black Cat to A34 Oxford.

It is that bad... to travel from Cambridge to Oxford is 50% longer via the M11/M25/M40 but journey times are a faster and more reliable to use the motorway route....

Once Black Cat to Caxton and M1 J13 to Magma Park dualling schemes are completed. Only a few miles of online dualling of the A421 to the A43 is needed to create a reliable route imo.

[trickstat]

My take on this is that I don’t want an expressway only to open up that part of Bucks for development as it’s a rather nice place of countryside which should not be ruined just for the sake of houses.

Yes, I had a good look at the big study document that was issued a while back and it seemed to be making a virtue of creating a new development corridor through the middle of a relatively undeveloped and unspoiled area. I commented on this thread at the time that I had my doubts that a new D2 would be sufficient for the millions of extra people expected to move into the study area and that I'd rather the expressway took a line closer to existing urban areas, either north around Buckingham / Bicester or preferably south around Aylesbury.

I can't see the latter option happening because you would probably require a route going through the leafy semi-rural area near Woburn and Woburn Sands.

[owen b]

My take on this is that I don’t want an expressway only to open up that part of Bucks for development as it’s a rather nice place of countryside which should not be ruined just for the sake of houses.

Yes, I had a good look at the big study document that was issued a while back and it seemed to be making a virtue of creating a new development corridor through the middle of a relatively undeveloped and unspoiled area. I commented on this thread at the time that I had my doubts that a new D2 would be sufficient for the millions of extra people expected to move into the study area and that I'd rather the expressway took a line closer to existing urban areas, either north around Buckingham / Bicester or preferably south around Aylesbury.

I can't see the latter option happening because you would probably require a route going through the leafy semi-rural area near Woburn and Woburn Sands.

I agree that area should not be built through. So the route would need to stay close to the railway line as far as Bow Brickhill, then follow the general but smoother line of the A4146 / A418 north west past Aylesbury towards the M40. A little bit circuitous I grant you but by no means insurmountable.