A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

The study of British and Irish roads - their construction, numbering, history, mapping, past and future official roads proposals and general roads musings.

There is a separate forum for Street Furniture (traffic lights, street lights, road signs etc).

Registered users get access to other forums including discussions about other forms of transport, driving, fantasy roads and wishlists, and roads quizzes.

Moderator: Site Management Team

Post Reply
DB617
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 00:51
Location: Bristol

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by DB617 »

IAN wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 09:16 Good news to see that this will hopefully start soon but it will presumably mean that two schemes will be under construction at the same time leading to several miles of disruption.
There are a few minutes of beautiful, usually uncongested freedom in between. The actual finished dual carriageway is very clear and an easy drive due to the huge bottleneck at the end limiting the flow from behind you. I assume the section from Dowlais to Brynmawr will be even more like this when there's a bottleneck at either end.

Plus, I would assume traffic coming up from Merthyr would be no more impeded than it is usually, as the A4060 D2 and A465 S3 devolve into a series of roundabouts that have been 'temporary' for 10+ years, with exits for a petrol station and shopping area, limiting the flow onto the eastbound D2 significantly.
User avatar
jackal
Member
Posts: 7549
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 23:33
Location: M6

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by jackal »

roadtester wrote: Wed Nov 25, 2020 17:07 Here's a bit of coverage from the last couple of weeks on the awarding of the contracts for sections 5 & 6, which seems quite pricey - although they are trying to drive a pretty high quality road through some difficult terrain:

https://www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk/Priv ... ction/8673

https://www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk/Head ... -mile/8688
So the construction cost is £550m but they're paying £1.14bn due to the PFI arrangements?? Pretty sad to see a supposedly left wing Labour Welsh government still using (rebranded) PFI when it's been abandoned by the Tories.

https://www.ft.com/content/d11f53c4-637 ... 28cc3c6a68
User avatar
Chris5156
Deputy Treasurer
Posts: 16908
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2001 21:50
Location: Hampshire
Contact:

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Chris5156 »

jackal wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 13:14So the construction cost is £550m but they're paying £1.14bn due to the PFI arrangements?? Pretty sad to see a supposedly left wing Labour Welsh government still using (rebranded) PFI when it's been abandoned by the Tories.
£1.14bn is presumably the cost of construction plus the cost of maintaining and operating the road for the following 30 years. Do we know what 18km of HQDC with a fairly large number of major structures would cost to maintain over a 30 year period? Is £600m realistic? Presumably inflation has to be factored in too.

You certainly do have to wonder whether Transport Wales would be able to keep it in reasonable condition for less than £20m a year, given the older assets will be refurbished and the rest will be brand new.
User avatar
jackal
Member
Posts: 7549
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 23:33
Location: M6

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by jackal »

It's part of it to be sure but there's no way they're spending tens of millions per year maintaining a stretch like that. The entire HE maintenance budget is only one or two billion and they have 4,300 miles to look after (most of it dual carriageway and motorway), so a few hundred thousand per mile per year. I'm pretty confident the majority of the excess £600m is financing cost and private profit.
Herned
Member
Posts: 1363
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 09:15

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Herned »

jackal wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 21:54 It's part of it to be sure but there's no way they're spending tens of millions per year maintaining a stretch like that. The entire HE maintenance budget is only one or two billion and they have 4,300 miles to look after (most of it dual carriageway and motorway), so a few hundred thousand per mile per year. I'm pretty confident the majority of the excess £600m is financing cost and private profit.
HE maintenance budget last year was £509m - £73k per km. They must be paying through the nose for the finance... the UK government could borrow £500m over 30 years and only pay £62m in interest
DB617
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 00:51
Location: Bristol

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by DB617 »

Though I don't understand the specific financial mechanics, the excess allowance for cost within the contract has been attributed to the collapse of previous companies - Carillion and Dawnus were named.
User avatar
jackal
Member
Posts: 7549
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 23:33
Location: M6

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by jackal »

Herned wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 23:08
jackal wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 21:54 It's part of it to be sure but there's no way they're spending tens of millions per year maintaining a stretch like that. The entire HE maintenance budget is only one or two billion and they have 4,300 miles to look after (most of it dual carriageway and motorway), so a few hundred thousand per mile per year. I'm pretty confident the majority of the excess £600m is financing cost and private profit.
HE maintenance budget last year was £509m - £73k per km.
If you look at the HE 2019-20 Delivery Plan (p. 64), the 'Operate the Network' budget is £898m, broken down as:

£224m - operations
£418m - PFI contracts
£256m - maintenance and renewals

There is additionally £147m on operational support, £71m on protocols and £805m for 'maintain renew' capital spend. So £1.921bn might be spent on a maximal understanding of 'maintenance' - I agree much lower numbers are plausible on stricter definitions.

I suggested 1-2 billion as I supposed most of the above elements might conceivably be covered by the A465m PFI, though yours may be the more comparable number - I'm not really familiar with what is and isn't covered in a Welsh PFI.

I note as well that a new dual carriageway will need much less maintenance work than the average one.

All told I'm pretty sure half a billion or so of that total is financing and profit, financing being much the larger element - e.g., £550m borrowed at 2% compounded over thirty years would cost £450m or so just in interest.
Herned wrote: Thu Nov 26, 2020 23:08They must be paying through the nose for the finance... the UK government could borrow £500m over 30 years and only pay £62m in interest
Indeed, that's the insanity of PFI - paying private companies to do something (borrow) that governments can do far more cheaply.
User avatar
roadtester
Member
Posts: 31475
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 18:05
Location: Cambridgeshire

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by roadtester »

The borrowing powers of the devolved administrations are quite limited when set against the relevant needs/priorities in terms of infrastructure. I suspect that's why they've gone the way they have.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14766

https://www.business-live.co.uk/economi ... t-16475562
Electrophorus Electricus

Check out #davidsdailycar on Mastodon
Herned
Member
Posts: 1363
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 09:15

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Herned »

jackal wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:10 If you look at the HE 2019-20 Delivery Plan (p. 64), the 'Operate the Network' budget is £898m, broken down as:

£224m - operations
£418m - PFI contracts
£256m - maintenance and renewals

There is additionally £147m on operational support, £71m on protocols and £805m for 'maintain renew' capital spend. So £1.921bn might be spent on a maximal understanding of 'maintenance' - I agree much lower numbers are plausible on stricter definitions.
I just looked up the annual accounts and took the figure for maintenance from there, but of course you are right that the PFI costs need to be added in somehow. Also I don't know to what extent HE count some renewals as capex, which Network Rail seem to do, so the figure should be higher than I suggested. But not by anything like enough to explain the difference in cost.

I would guess they are paying a big premium to borrow the money, given the risks involved for the banks, what with Carillion etc
User avatar
IAN
Member
Posts: 1494
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2001 19:07

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by IAN »

Are there any plans to GSJ the roundabouts at Glynneath and Resolven so that the route is completely free-flowing between Abergavenny and Neath when sections 5 and 6 are completed?
AKA M5 Driver
User avatar
Chris5156
Deputy Treasurer
Posts: 16908
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2001 21:50
Location: Hampshire
Contact:

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Chris5156 »

IAN wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 17:30Are there any plans to GSJ the roundabouts at Glynneath and Resolven so that the route is completely free-flowing between Abergavenny and Neath when sections 5 and 6 are completed?
I haven't seen any plans for this.

The trouble with rebuilding those junctions is that the A465 carries 15-20k AADT between Merthyr and Aberdulais. That figure is high enough to make a single carriageway road unacceptably busy, and produce congestion and an accident rate that justify a dualling project. And if you're carrying out a dualling project, there's no reason not to provide GSJs throughout.

However, where a dual carriageway exists, is carrying 15-20k AADT, and indeed is only about 30 years old (so has been built to more or less current standards and has plenty of life left in its carriageways and structures), there isn't much of a case to be made for reconstructing flat roundabouts as GSJs. Traffic levels and accident rates just won't justify it. You could make a political decision to do it anyway, to complete the expressway route, but you'd be prioritising a free-flowing route that's received plenty of recent investment over other sites that potentially have bigger congestion issues and higher accident rates.

Perhaps when the Dowlais-Hirwaun scheme is complete there will be some impetus to GSJ the flat junctions at Glynneath, Resolven, Abergavenny and Raglan, on the basis that further improvements will relieve the M4, or because the improved route has generated new journeys that mean those roundabouts have become congested. But I can't see it coming on to the agenda for another 10 years or so.

All things considered, it's a real shame that flat roundabouts were used to save a bit of money when those bits were dualled, because that was the time to do it.
User avatar
Truvelo
Member
Posts: 17467
Joined: Wed May 29, 2002 21:10
Location: Staffordshire
Contact:

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Truvelo »

Chris5156 wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 21:29 All things considered, it's a real shame that flat roundabouts were used to save a bit of money when those bits were dualled, because that was the time to do it.
I suspect they were originally planned as GSJs but I've done no research on this road yet. However the nearby A470 was planned to have GSJs all the way from Cardiff to Merthyr Tydfil. By the time the section from Abercynon northwards was built the junctions had been downgraded.
How would you like your grade separations, Sir?
Big and complex.
User avatar
Chris5156
Deputy Treasurer
Posts: 16908
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2001 21:50
Location: Hampshire
Contact:

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Chris5156 »

Truvelo wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 21:42
Chris5156 wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 21:29All things considered, it's a real shame that flat roundabouts were used to save a bit of money when those bits were dualled, because that was the time to do it.
I suspect they were originally planned as GSJs but I've done no research on this road yet. However the nearby A470 was planned to have GSJs all the way from Cardiff to Merthyr Tydfil. By the time the section from Abercynon northwards was built the junctions had been downgraded.
I looked briefly into this section when writing my article on the Heads of the Valleys Road - mostly just what I could find on Hansard etc rather than archive documents. I think the story is that, once the S3 section between Abergavenny and Hirwaun was complete, the section west of Hirwaun was a problem, and by then traffic levels justified D2. The first bits to be built, closest to Neath, were GSJ'd, because it was the 70s, and the remaining schemes in the late 80s or early 90s had flat roundabouts to save money, because it was the late 80s/early 90s.

In other words... the usual! :laugh:
DB617
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 00:51
Location: Bristol

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by DB617 »

There are still rather a lot of flat roundabouts on the Welsh trunk network in inappropriate places. Heck, Transport Scotland just build a new one at Stonehouse. I'd rather see new schemes be brought in than have all the trunk dual carriageway spending continue to be on the 90% perfect A465. There is other very important work to be done up west away from Cardiff. The A48/A40 is ripe for crossing closures and an LAR and a GSJ at St Clears (and, were funding to allow, a bypass of Carmarthen) are desperately needed in holiday season. If HE are investing in the A30 for holiday traffic, we should definitely be doing the same on the A40.
User avatar
jackal
Member
Posts: 7549
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 23:33
Location: M6

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by jackal »

DB617 wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:13 There are still rather a lot of flat roundabouts on the Welsh trunk network in inappropriate places. Heck, Transport Scotland just build a new one at Stonehouse. I'd rather see new schemes be brought in than have all the trunk dual carriageway spending continue to be on the 90% perfect A465. There is other very important work to be done up west away from Cardiff. The A48/A40 is ripe for crossing closures and an LAR and a GSJ at St Clears (and, were funding to allow, a bypass of Carmarthen) are desperately needed in holiday season. If HE are investing in the A30 for holiday traffic, we should definitely be doing the same on the A40.
This is a good call. The A40/A48 is perhaps comparable to the A11 in that it's really much too busy for flat junctions, touching 40k AADT. It's a much higher priority than removing the last roundabouts on the A465.

I'd say the A40 in Monmouth is a high priority as well. Really though you'd want the roundabouts in Ross done too and cross border cooperation may be tricky after the fiasco in Deeside.

The A470 roundabouts also should be looked at, especially Abercynon.

The other obvious ones are the roundabouts on the A55, which are being removed to be fair.

I'm not sure there's really any 'complete' expressway/grade-separated dual carriageway route in Wales. There should be an effort to finish off the ones that come close. The roads budget must be swimming in money after the M4 bypass was cancelled, right? :roll:

PS - Do you mean Stonehaven?
Herned
Member
Posts: 1363
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 09:15

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Herned »

What could sensibly be done in Monmouth? The A40/A465 junction in Abergavenny is also very awkward/expensive to solve, I guess bypassing it to the south is easiest but not cheap
User avatar
ForestChav
SABRE Developer
Posts: 11081
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 00:00
Location: Nottingham (Bronx of the Midlands)
Contact:

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by ForestChav »

Given that the A40 is in a dip in Monmouth, the only sensible thing you could do with the A466 junction would be to close it entirely, at least to A466 traffic. You would need to retain some provision to cross the road which would probably need to be a footbridge due to the school, which would probably be safer for the kids anyway.

As for the A466, the quickest thing would then be to utilise the junction further down with the B4293, or the roundabout to the north. In either case, you'd then have to cross the Wye and meet either the A466 or A4136 then just reroute the numbers. If you used the north roundabout you'd probably have to convert it to a dumbell and push the A40 through the middle and then you could quite easily cut a road to the west to meet the A466 bypassing the town completely.

But there isn't an awful lot of space to make any actual changes to the A40 here.
C, E flat and G go into a bar. The barman says "sorry, we don't serve minors". So E flat walks off, leaving C and G to share an open fifth between them.

Never argue with an idiot. They will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
DB617
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 00:51
Location: Bristol

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by DB617 »

jackal wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:00 This is a good call. The A40/A48 is perhaps comparable to the A11 in that it's really much too busy for flat junctions, touching 40k AADT. It's a much higher priority than removing the last roundabouts on the A465.

I'd say the A40 in Monmouth is a high priority as well. Really though you'd want the roundabouts in Ross done too and cross border cooperation may be tricky after the fiasco in Deeside.
That's why I'm focusing really on inner-Wales projects. As the Welsh Government is currently forcing a sea change in its transport policy, the death of cooperation with England can be seen everywhere, especially WRT the M4 relief road which will remain a sore point until a change of governing party. I figure there is almost no chance of the English A40 being finished as an expressway from the M50 onwards. Unfortunately there are also quite a lot of dangerous low-quality junctions on the A40 between north of Pencraig and Monmouth. None of them would pass a modern safety review and are obstacles to expressway standards (if there were any).

In both the case of the M50 and M4, I'd like really to see the weird corner-cutting D2s at the ends become part of the motorway between Ross and Newport, Pont Abraham and Carmarthen and with the addition of an LAR and finishing the GSJs you could almost get away with it by modern standards. The money isn't there but it would be more complete and wipe out the apparent regional disparity in road standards in South Wales.
jackal wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 12:00 I'm not sure there's really any 'complete' expressway/grade-separated dual carriageway route in Wales. There should be an effort to finish off the ones that come close. The roads budget must be swimming in money after the M4 bypass was cancelled, right? :roll:
PS - Do you mean Stonehaven?
The road budget for the M4 has just been recommended to be spent on an integrated transport network for the M4 corridor instead. So... in a word...! :lol:

Yeah, I always get Stonehouse/Stonehaven wrong on this site. Every. Time.
User avatar
jackal
Member
Posts: 7549
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 23:33
Location: M6

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by jackal »

I don't think Ross is that hard. LILO the crossroads - cross movements aren't needed, in fact one of them is already prohibited. And there's already a subway I believe.

Then dumbbell at the roundabout with a bridge across to the A4136.
User avatar
Bryn666
Elected Committee Member
Posts: 35755
Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2002 20:54
Contact:

Re: A465 Heads Of The Valleys Dualling; Dowlais Top To Hirwaun

Post by Bryn666 »

The short section of the A465 between Hirwaun and Glynneath was dualled in the 1970s but clearly not designed for the western extension as it ran straight into the old A465 with no future proofing. Indeed there is now a very lengthy abandoned section of former dual carriageway where the westbound side has been completely excavated away to provide fill for the new line.

Likewise the terminal junction at Aberdulais was changed in shape when the 90s extension was built. You can see there are still unbuilt stubs for slip roads that were realigned because of the railway.

I went and had a look at all this in July when you were allowed to have a trip to Wales and have several photos I haven't got round to doing anything with.
Bryn
Terminally cynical, unimpressed, and nearly Middle Age already.
She said life was like a motorway; dull, grey, and long.

Blog - https://showmeasign.online/
X - https://twitter.com/ShowMeASignBryn
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@BrynBuck
Post Reply