Anti Local Traffic Neighbourhood campaign in SE London

[Chris Bertram]

No, I agree with 60% of local residents that the concept is right.

Once again, easy to be seduced by the concept and subsequently horrified by the execution.

Once again: the survey was conducted after execution - 91% of those surveyed were aware of the scheme, and 63% explicitly supported it.

The survey spoke to a representative sample of people but there are always error bars to these things. However, the unavoidable fact is that the unanimous local opposition you imply the existence of simply doesn't exist - most people seem to think it is, at worst, fine.

Not what I am hearing from other local sources, I'm afraid. But we're clearly going to have to agree to disagree on this.

[jnty]

Once again, easy to be seduced by the concept and subsequently horrified by the execution.

Once again: the survey was conducted after execution - 91% of those surveyed were aware of the scheme, and 63% explicitly supported it.

The survey spoke to a representative sample of people but there are always error bars to these things. However, the unavoidable fact is that the unanimous local opposition you imply the existence of simply doesn't exist - most people seem to think it is, at worst, fine.

Not what I am hearing from other local sources, I'm afraid. But we're clearly going to have to agree to disagree on this.

I expect that people who oppose the scheme are likely to speak to lots of other people who oppose the scheme. That's the way these things go - I'm sure if I went and spoke to the local bike advocacy group, I'd get the impression that support was universal. This is why objective research is important.

[Chris Bertram]

Once again: the survey was conducted after execution - 91% of those surveyed were aware of the scheme, and 63% explicitly supported it.
The survey spoke to a representative sample of people but there are always error bars to these things. However, the unavoidable fact is that the unanimous local opposition you imply the existence of simply doesn't exist - most people seem to think it is, at worst, fine.

Not what I am hearing from other local sources, I'm afraid. But we're clearly going to have to agree to disagree on this.

I expect that people who oppose the scheme are likely to speak to lots of other people who oppose the scheme. That's the way these things go - I'm sure if I went and spoke to the local bike advocacy group, I'd get the impression that support was universal. This is why objective research is important.

People who thing that the scheme is, at worst, "fine", a very lukewarm compliment indeed, were probably similarly apathetic about the situation before the LTN. They weren't pressing for change, we didn't have demos saying "LTN Now!" or similar. But we are now having demos *against* the LTN, posters in windows, organised campaigns, the works. Trying to assert that all is well against that background is, to be honest, urinating against the breeze.

I know that it's a big change, and people don't generally like change. But they can be persuaded to accept it and to adapt if they can see the benefits of the change. That's what's not happening. Traffic evaporation? Nope. Reduced pollution levels? Nope. Easier walking and cycling? Within the LTN perhaps, but outside it the congestion caused by the displaced traffic makes it if anything worse. Plus buses get caught up in the congestion so no advantage to public transport either. So where are these benefits? It's as bad as Br*xit, lots of promises, little delivery.

[jnty]

Not what I am hearing from other local sources, I'm afraid. But we're clearly going to have to agree to disagree on this.

I expect that people who oppose the scheme are likely to speak to lots of other people who oppose the scheme. That's the way these things go - I'm sure if I went and spoke to the local bike advocacy group, I'd get the impression that support was universal. This is why objective research is important.

People who thing that the scheme is, at worst, "fine", a very lukewarm compliment indeed, were probably similarly apathetic about the situation before the LTN. They weren't pressing for change, we didn't have demos saying "LTN Now!" or similar. But we are now having demos *against* the LTN, posters in windows, organised campaigns, the works. Trying to assert that all is well against that background is, to be honest, urinating against the breeze.

No - but they were probably writing letters to councillors and generally moaning about road traffic issues like speeding cars, congestion in residential areas, air quality and the safety of children at play. Those councillors have now done their jobs and delivered a scheme which attempts to address those concerns. Your neighbours might not be organising "LTN now!" campaigns but then, why would they? The scheme has been implemented, has stayed in place and, according your assessment of the council's position, does not seem to be under threat.

Additionally, a supporter of the scheme was bizarrely and publicly berated by the local MP so I imagine there's a reluctance to put heads above the parapet unnecessarily. But I do wonder what young families must think when they look and see some of their neighbours desperately campaigning to increase traffic outside their homes and on the routes their children take to school.

Regarding demos, it looks as though a recent one was arranged by the "Birmingham Workers Party". Is this the party you'd expect to unseat the councillor(s) you mentioned next month?

[Chris Bertram]

I expect that people who oppose the scheme are likely to speak to lots of other people who oppose the scheme. That's the way these things go - I'm sure if I went and spoke to the local bike advocacy group, I'd get the impression that support was universal. This is why objective research is important.

People who thing that the scheme is, at worst, "fine", a very lukewarm compliment indeed, were probably similarly apathetic about the situation before the LTN. They weren't pressing for change, we didn't have demos saying "LTN Now!" or similar. But we are now having demos *against* the LTN, posters in windows, organised campaigns, the works. Trying to assert that all is well against that background is, to be honest, urinating against the breeze.

No - but they were probably writing letters to councillors and generally moaning about road traffic issues like speeding cars, congestion in residential areas, air quality and the safety of children at play. Those councillors have now done their jobs and delivered a scheme which attempts to address those concerns. Your neighbours might not be organising "LTN now!" campaigns but then, why would they? The scheme has been implemented, has stayed in place and, according your assessment of the council's position, does not seem to be under threat.

Additionally, a supporter of the scheme was bizarrely and publicly berated by the local MP so I imagine there's a reluctance to put heads above the parapet unnecessarily. But I do wonder what young families must think when they look and see some of their neighbours desperately campaigning to increase traffic outside their homes and on the routes their children take to school.

Regarding demos, it looks as though a (the?) most recent one was arranged by the "Birmingham Workers Party". Is this the party you'd expect to unseat the councillor(s) you mentioned next month?

Ah no, they're Galloway's stooges, and will barely trouble the scorers. Worth staying away from them, mud sticks and they're particularly filthy. They've hitched a ride on the anti-LTN feeling, that's all. But the demo will have attracted people who wouldn't vote for them in a month of Sundays.

What people are asking for is a reversion to the status quo ante the LTN, to a known situation from which baselines can be properly drawn regarding traffic levels, pollution levels, journey times and so on. None of that was done before the road blocks went in. And in fact many people *have* had traffic increased outside their homes, traffic that would have gone past someone else's home, sure, but it seems that that's ok. And I recognise the name of the resident berated by the MP (though Khalid Mahmood is actually MP for Perry Barr, not the local MP at all), he's almost religious in his support for LTNs and cannot see any issues at all with them, though I do believe that his road has had a road block installed.

[jnty]

People who thing that the scheme is, at worst, "fine", a very lukewarm compliment indeed, were probably similarly apathetic about the situation before the LTN. They weren't pressing for change, we didn't have demos saying "LTN Now!" or similar. But we are now having demos *against* the LTN, posters in windows, organised campaigns, the works. Trying to assert that all is well against that background is, to be honest, urinating against the breeze.

No - but they were probably writing letters to councillors and generally moaning about road traffic issues like speeding cars, congestion in residential areas, air quality and the safety of children at play. Those councillors have now done their jobs and delivered a scheme which attempts to address those concerns. Your neighbours might not be organising "LTN now!" campaigns but then, why would they? The scheme has been implemented, has stayed in place and, according your assessment of the council's position, does not seem to be under threat.

Additionally, a supporter of the scheme was bizarrely and publicly berated by the local MP so I imagine there's a reluctance to put heads above the parapet unnecessarily. But I do wonder what young families must think when they look and see some of their neighbours desperately campaigning to increase traffic outside their homes and on the routes their children take to school.

Regarding demos, it looks as though a (the?) most recent one was arranged by the "Birmingham Workers Party". Is this the party you'd expect to unseat the councillor(s) you mentioned next month?

Ah no, they're Galloway's stooges, and will barely trouble the scorers. Worth staying away from them, mud sticks and they're particularly filthy. They've hitched a ride on the anti-LTN feeling, that's all. But the demo will have attracted people who wouldn't vote for them in a month of Sundays.

What people are asking for is a reversion to the status quo ante the LTN, to a known situation from which baselines can be properly drawn regarding traffic levels, pollution levels, journey times and so on. None of that was done before the road blocks went in. And in fact many people *have* had traffic increased outside their homes, traffic that would have gone past someone else's home, sure, but it seems that that's ok. And I recognise the name of the resident berated by the MP (though Khalid Mahmood is actually MP for Perry Barr, not the local MP at all), he's almost religious in his support for LTNs and cannot see any issues at all with them, though I do believe that his road has had a road block installed.

Ah - the People's Front of Judean LTN opposition? Given opposition is apparently so unanimous is there a more "legitimate" protest group? I found this but it seems to have a lot of unrelated tweets about the Labour party and Jimmy Savile.

You've said before that you (and presumably most anti-LTNers) acknowledge the traffic issues in the area prior to the LTN, so why are you all so keen to roll back the clock? You say baselining is necessary, but how long for? Should the old layout be put back in place after, say, six months, or should another one be tried? How much is that all going to cost versus just formalising the existing scheme? Were there really no traffic counts on the main road that can be used to get some idea about what the effect of the scheme was without having to tear the whole thing down?

[Chris Bertram]

You've said before that you (and presumably most anti-LTNers) acknowledge the traffic issues in the area prior to the LTN, so why are you all so keen to roll back the clock? You say baselining is necessary, but how long for? Should the old layout be put back in place after, say, six months, or should another one be tried? How much is that all going to cost versus just formalising the existing scheme? Were there really no traffic counts on the main road that can be used to get some idea about what the effect of the scheme was without having to tear the whole thing down?

Apparently not, or at least none that the council was prepared to make public - so we have to assume none that meant anything. Likewise there was no pollution monitoring data available. It really has been the most shambolic farce, and it needn't have been at all. Then there are the egos involved ... but that happens anywhere.

We're keen to roll back the clock because although there were issues before the LTN, it appears to have exacerbated them rather than resolved them. When applying treatment, it's customary to ensure that the cure will not be worse than the disease, isn't it?

[jnty]

You've said before that you (and presumably most anti-LTNers) acknowledge the traffic issues in the area prior to the LTN, so why are you all so keen to roll back the clock? You say baselining is necessary, but how long for? Should the old layout be put back in place after, say, six months, or should another one be tried? How much is that all going to cost versus just formalising the existing scheme? Were there really no traffic counts on the main road that can be used to get some idea about what the effect of the scheme was without having to tear the whole thing down?

Apparently not, or at least none that the council was prepared to make public - so we have to assume none that meant anything. Likewise there was no pollution monitoring data available. It really has been the most shambolic farce, and it needn't have been at all. Then there are the egos involved ... but that happens anywhere.

I do seem to recall a disruptive event in 2020 which might have made traffic baselining difficult, but assuming the worst of elected officials is a fine British pastime I wouldn't want to disrupt. But let's get to grips with the meat of the issue - what's the alternative grand plan? Tear all the barriers down, let the traffic rip and...then what?

[Chris Bertram]

I do seem to recall a disruptive event in 2020 which might have made traffic baselining difficult, but assuming the worst of elected officials is a fine British pastime I wouldn't want to disrupt. But let's get to grips with the meat of the issue - what's the alternative grand plan? Tear all the barriers down, let the traffic rip and...then what?

https://www.rethinkltn.org/alternative-ideas

[jnty]

I do seem to recall a disruptive event in 2020 which might have made traffic baselining difficult, but assuming the worst of elected officials is a fine British pastime I wouldn't want to disrupt. But let's get to grips with the meat of the issue - what's the alternative grand plan? Tear all the barriers down, let the traffic rip and...then what?

https://www.rethinkltn.org/alternative-ideas

Sounds like a reasonable grab-bag of good intentions, although I have to laugh at the idea that an anti-LTN campaign would be genuinely OK with running cycle tracks throughout the area, presumably at the expense of dozens of car parking spaces. The implication that it would cost the same as a few barriers is pretty wide of the mark too I'd have thought...

It sounds like a lot of the more feasible ideas, like use of one ways instead of barriers, are being implemented anyway though or looked at for the future by the council?

[Telstarbox]

From Enfield:

"The Labour Party has retained control of Enfield Council despite losing eight seats to the opposition Conservatives compared with its 2018 result.

... the verdict from voters on the borough’s two new LTNs did not appear to be conclusive either way. While the Conservatives won clean sweeps in Southgate and Winchmore Hill – both wards impacted by the Fox Lane LTN and both wards that had elected Labour councillors in 2018 – Labour were triumphant in Palmers Green, another ward affected by the Fox Lane LTN, and in Bowes, which has its own LTN scheme."

https://enfielddispatch.co.uk/labour-re ... in-ground/

[TS]

This is a really interesting topic and, as a complete lay-person in terms of traffic engineering and road design, I feel that perhaps no solution will ever be popular. There are just so many factors outwith anyone's control.

Foremost, the immediacy and traction of social media today means that anyone anti something that goes ahead, or pro something that gets binned, can garner immediate attention and put accusations of "flawed consultation" to mean "it went the way I opposed, therefore nobody could have listened."

Don't get me wrong - I've worked for the Local Authority for 30 years and I know most of them are quite capable of cocking things up: and often take the opportunity to do so! But I'm afraid that takes precedence even when the council acts quite reasonably. It is particularly tricky when a scheme is very controversial and has vociferous opposition and also vociferous support.

Our local paper is very anti-council. As I said above, it shouldn't have any problems creating negative stories on the council which are quite well justified... but the paper often runs stories of Mr Bloggs, pictured with a cross face and crossed arms, had some grip with the council and the public comments below the line come wholly down on the side of the council. When that happens, you know something is amiss! One recent one was where someone got a ticket for not 'parking within the marked spaces' in a car park. It turned out that the area he decided to park on was the pavement! But the paper ran the story anyway.

Another thing, as some have mentioned, is that you can't impinge car travel without genuinely offering something that will get people travelling another way. I have a car; I try to walk when I can, and think myself generally supportive of lessening traffic. But buses are VERY expensive (I can still get an all-day car park in the town for £5 which is only 50p more than the day return by bus). There must be some way of encouraging bus travel? It isn't as convenient because it's not always on-time and may not take you exactly where you want to be. But the real turn-off for me is the cost.

Here's something radical: offer everyone free bus travel one day a week. (Maybe based on surname or something like that?) Perhaps more people will realise that it works for them and transfer them to it more frequently, while an upturn in usage might push costs down? I don't know.

But without doing anything to encourage alternative methods, while making it more difficult to make a car journey, gives the impression of councils forcing things down people's throats - and then we are back to social media outrage and thousands of blind likes for only one side of the story.

Having spent many years in school admissions, it is easy to put the spotlight on the school run - but even that is perhaps representative of other things. Laziness in modern life is a factor, sure, but also as someone said above, far fewer families have a stay-at-home parent and what mother is going to walk her kid to school, walk home again, and then jump in the car to drive to work when she's passing the same school she's just walked to?

Having rambled on on all of this, I realise I've absolutely no real solution to offer, no constructive comments as to how I would manange it, and anyway am left with the impression that there is nothing anybody can do as we're far too far down the line of car reliance, and everyone feels that everyone in authority has it in for them.

[WHBM]

From my background I would be notably supportive of such schemes - if they were actually used. The one I described that started things off, I've never seen a bicycle go through there, ever. And this seems to be the nub - if things are provided and used, all well and good. There's a general expectation for example that Crossrail will be mobbed from Day 1 onwards. But schemes that cause inconvenience and DON'T get used, of any sort, and whose sole purpose seems to be some political grandstanding, possibly to those miles away who are unaffected, are surely something to go back as it was.

[Telstarbox]

Returning to the Blackheath location in the OP:
On the Lewisham side, Blackheath ward elected 3 Labour councillors
On the Greenwich side, Blackheath Westcombe ward also elected 3 Labour councillors
There were boundary changes for both councils compared to the 2018 election.
So it appears that anti-LTN sentiment wasn't widespread or salient enough to affect the political representation in these areas.

[jnty]

Returning to the Blackheath location in the OP:
On the Lewisham side, Blackheath ward elected 3 Labour councillors
On the Greenwich side, Blackheath Westcombe ward also elected 3 Labour councillors
There were boundary changes for both councils compared to the 2018 election.
So it appears that anti-LTN sentiment wasn't widespread or salient enough to affect the political representation in these areas.

Looks like the same story in King's Heath - Labour hold. More widely Labour held on to a big majority despite proposing to turn the whole city centre into an LTN.

It seems as though LTNs are an emotive issue for a certain segment of the electorate, but perhaps one which was likely to mostly vote for the parties that tend to oppose LTNs anyway. So it might be a good 'get out the vote' issue in marginal seats, but it seems as though it's not a substantial vote winner. Some (all?) councils release a breakdown of vote by polling station - it would be interesting to see if anything could be gleaned from that. It might be that residents care less about an LTN, whereas drivers nearby who have lost shortcuts care more or the opposite may be true.

There does seem to be a strong 'echo chamber' effect, perhaps caused by the fact these things generate public meetings which can make it seem as though opposition is unanimous. I noticed some Tory leaflets pledging to 'scrap LTNs' without actually defining the term, assuming that floating voters would be as familiar with the term as they are. Of course, to many it's just an acronym, or at best an obscure traffic engineering term. They would have perhaps been better going with 'scrap the road blocks' or something more immediately understandable to the average resident.

[Bryn666]

They would have perhaps been better going with 'scrap the road blocks' or something more immediately understandable to the average resident.

That's the thing - quite a number of residents are quite happy to have speeding cars removed from their area entirely so that would backfire massively in some areas.

[jnty]

They would have perhaps been better going with 'scrap the road blocks' or something more immediately understandable to the average resident.

That's the thing - quite a number of residents are quite happy to have speeding cars removed from their area entirely so that would backfire massively in some areas.

Yes - I suppose it's maybe a 'culture war' thing where it feels easier to get people to get angry about a press boogeyman than to actually define what it is you oppose and justify your objection. Unfortunately for the councillors in these wards, their constituents hadn't done the appropriate research into which topics they were meant to be angry about this time around.

[fras]

Wasn't there a swing TO the Conservatives in Harrow unlike almost everywhere else in London, and the reason was apparently LTNs and their unpopularity. .

[jnty]

Wasn't there a swing TO the Conservatives in Harrow unlike almost everywhere else in London, and the reason was apparently LTNs and their unpopularity. .

I think Harrow's LTNs were removed last year, so either wouldn't have factored in or would have come across (perhaps reasonably) as a waste of money. Apparently, local council tax was increased by the maximum amount for the last 8 years which was probably a bigger issue given the current climate around the cost of living.

[Chris Bertram]

Returning to the Blackheath location in the OP:
On the Lewisham side, Blackheath ward elected 3 Labour councillors
On the Greenwich side, Blackheath Westcombe ward also elected 3 Labour councillors
There were boundary changes for both councils compared to the 2018 election.
So it appears that anti-LTN sentiment wasn't widespread or salient enough to affect the political representation in these areas.

Looks like the same story in King's Heath - Labour hold. More widely Labour held on to a big majority despite proposing to turn the whole city centre into an LTN.

It seems as though LTNs are an emotive issue for a certain segment of the electorate, but perhaps one which was likely to mostly vote for the parties that tend to oppose LTNs anyway. So it might be a good 'get out the vote' issue in marginal seats, but it seems as though it's not a substantial vote winner. Some (all?) councils release a breakdown of vote by polling station - it would be interesting to see if anything could be gleaned from that. It might be that residents care less about an LTN, whereas drivers nearby who have lost shortcuts care more or the opposite may be true.

I don't live in Kings Heath and Brandwood ward. I do live in Moseley ward, and the box for the area next in line to be affected voted strongly against Labour (this is the district I live in), with the ward electing a Lib Dem councillor first with Labour second (it's a two-seat ward). You can of course interpret that multiple ways, and when push comes to shove a full council election is about far more than a single issue, and noise from national politics inevitably gets in the way too.

The only way to find out about the LTN as in issue would be to isolate it from everything else, and have a local referendum on it. But that won't happen, it would be expensive, and it might deliver an unwelcome result. Consultations have recently been held on the proposals for Tranche 2, and suggested that respondents wanted the whole thing dropped, but we are now told that "a consultation is not a referendum", which seems convenient.