All Wales Road Projects Scrapped?

[jnty]

What interests me about these decisions is to understand what the aim is.

Do they think that scrapping new road projects in Wales will...

Make a noticeable difference to climate change?
Encourage other countries to do the same?
Signal Wales' virtue to other countries?

Wales has some of the worst transport infrastructure of any country in the developed world. The idea that it doesn't need any more is - shall we say - optimistic.

You missed the obvious one, which is that it will free up investment for green transport infrastructure which doesn't rely on a utopian rapid mass migration to EVs.

If you think they'll actually take the money they would have spent on road projects and put it into green transport infrastructure instead then I have a bridge you might be interested in.

Well yes - a lot of the money doesn't actually exist in the first place.

[jnty]

What interests me about these decisions is to understand what the aim is.

Do they think that scrapping new road projects in Wales will...

Make a noticeable difference to climate change?
Encourage other countries to do the same?
Signal Wales' virtue to other countries?

Wales has some of the worst transport infrastructure of any country in the developed world. The idea that it doesn't need any more is - shall we say - optimistic.

You missed the obvious one, which is that it will free up investment for green transport infrastructure which doesn't rely on a utopian rapid mass migration to EVs.

Like the Highlands, Wales is particularly unsuited to public transport due to terrain and low population density - looking forward the only choices will be IC car, EV car or pony for people outside of the South Wales conurbation.

Sorry, this is nonsense - the population density of Wales is almost 20 times that of the Highlands.

[rhyds]

I guess we should lobby Westminster to modify the Barnett Formula so money is no longer given out for silly wastes of money like this. That's not transport infrastructure.

The problem is that Westminster didn't/doesn't do a much better job even in the days of the Welsh Office. A fine example was the A494 at Ty Nant near Dolgellau. An embankment slipped over Christmas 1979, reducing this trunk route to a narrow single lane with "temporary" traffic lights. The road itself didn't actually get fixed until 1999, so that's 20 years of inaction from the Westminster governmet.

More recently the Welsh Government built the A483 improvements at Four Crosses a fair few years ago, yet the Pant-Llanymynech section is still waiting for HE to get around to building it.

[rhyds]

You missed the obvious one, which is that it will free up investment for green transport infrastructure which doesn't rely on a utopian rapid mass migration to EVs.

Like the Highlands, Wales is particularly unsuited to public transport due to terrain and low population density - looking forward the only choices will be IC car, EV car or pony for people outside of the South Wales conurbation.

Sorry, this is nonsense - the population density of Wales is almost 20 times that of the Highlands.

Wales as a whole or the empty middle bit?

[Ruperts Trooper]

You missed the obvious one, which is that it will free up investment for green transport infrastructure which doesn't rely on a utopian rapid mass migration to EVs.

Like the Highlands, Wales is particularly unsuited to public transport due to terrain and low population density - looking forward the only choices will be IC car, EV car or pony for people outside of the South Wales conurbation.

Sorry, this is nonsense - the population density of Wales is almost 20 times that of the Highlands.

Away from the Cardiff/Swansea conurbation, population density is much lower - just as the Highlands is much lkower than Scotland as a whole.

[Helvellyn]

Right thing done for the wrong reason IMO. And will it be accompanied by anything actually useful and not just annoying and obnoxious to reduce the need for roads (both existing and new)? No chance, no politician ever has an answer to anything other than "more and more."

[ManomayLR]

Like the Highlands, Wales is particularly unsuited to public transport due to terrain and low population density - looking forward the only choices will be IC car, EV car or pony for people outside of the South Wales conurbation.

Sorry, this is nonsense - the population density of Wales is almost 20 times that of the Highlands.

Away from the Cardiff/Swansea conurbation, population density is much lower - just as the Highlands is much lkower than Scotland as a whole.

The thing is, if the Senedd were really so intent on doing things for the environment, I would have thought they'd have tried to direct some money to the GWML electrification to Swansea.

I don't see why they can't insist that Network Rail do it, do they have no jurisdiction to order such a thing??

[jnty]

Like the Highlands, Wales is particularly unsuited to public transport due to terrain and low population density - looking forward the only choices will be IC car, EV car or pony for people outside of the South Wales conurbation.

Sorry, this is nonsense - the population density of Wales is almost 20 times that of the Highlands.

Wales as a whole or the empty middle bit?

Population densities in Mid Wales are still 4-5x higher than the Highlands as a whole, and go higher if you exclude Inverness. The population densities of any uninhabited parts of any country are zero, of course...

Cars will always be the most flexible way of accessing low-population areas, but those low-population areas are already connected by roads. The point of public transport is to take pressure off the busier links to free up the existing roads capacity for these 'necessary' journeys. It is not credible to argue that Welsh public transport provision is anywhere close to some kind of saturation point.

[jnty]

Sorry, this is nonsense - the population density of Wales is almost 20 times that of the Highlands.

Away from the Cardiff/Swansea conurbation, population density is much lower - just as the Highlands is much lkower than Scotland as a whole.

The thing is, if the Senedd were really so intent on doing things for the environment, I would have thought they'd have tried to direct some money to the GWML electrification to Swansea.

I don't see why they can't insist that Network Rail do it, do they have no jurisdiction to order such a thing??

No - rail infrastructure is not devolved in Wales, so they do not receive any money for it in the block grant and too much rail-related activity and spending could be regarded as unlawful.

[rhyds]

Population densities in Mid Wales are still 4-5x higher than the Highlands as a whole, and go higher if you exclude Inverness. The population densities of any uninhabited parts of any country are zero, of course...

4x higher than a very small number is still a small number, and the basic premise still holds true. For most of Wales between the routes of the A465/A40 across the south and the A55 across the north coast the topography and population means that it is going to be difficult to provide usable public transport solutions. There are plenty of calls for extra bus services and even reopening rail services, however there's still the main problems that Mid Wales throws up with regards to public transport:

On the population side, you simply don't have enough people wanting to go to the same place at the same time to fill a bus or train. This means you either run lots of empty buses and trains (drastically increasing emissions) or run fewer services and expect the public to make their lives fit the timetable. The third option of subsidised taxis/book-a-bus that many councils are embracing is much more flexible, however it does require you to decide yesterday where you want to go today.

On the topography side, railways generally have to stick to the lower ground to avoid lots of expensive tunnels, while bus routes stick to routes via populated towns to pick up as many fares as possible. This causes issues if you happen to want to go somewhere "over the mountain", such as Bala to Denbigh which is an hour by car or three hours by bus.

[roadtester]

Population densities in Mid Wales are still 4-5x higher than the Highlands as a whole, and go higher if you exclude Inverness. The population densities of any uninhabited parts of any country are zero, of course...

4x higher than a very small number is still a small number, and the basic premise still holds true. For most of Wales between the routes of the A465/A40 across the south and the A55 across the north coast the topography and population means that it is going to be difficult to provide usable public transport solutions. There are plenty of calls for extra bus services and even reopening rail services, however there's still the main problems that Mid Wales throws up with regards to public transport:

On the population side, you simply don't have enough people wanting to go to the same place at the same time to fill a bus or train. This means you either run lots of empty buses and trains (drastically increasing emissions) or run fewer services and expect the public to make their lives fit the timetable. The third option of subsidised taxis/book-a-bus that many councils are embracing is much more flexible, however it does require you to decide yesterday where you want to go today.

On the topography side, railways generally have to stick to the lower ground to avoid lots of expensive tunnels, while bus routes stick to routes via populated towns to pick up as many fares as possible. This causes issues if you happen to want to go somewhere "over the mountain", such as Bala to Denbigh which is an hour by car or three hours by bus.

The other aspect is that in Wales, the underpopulated bit lies between, and thanks also to the terrain, is a big natural barrier between, the two main areas of higher population density in North and South Wales.

North-South transport policy is therefore a vital aspect in terms of building Welsh identity and giving people outside the Cardiff/Swansea areas access to national institutions and resources, as well as, say, top jobs.

There is no direct North-South rail link within Wales and the main North-South road link, the A470, is well below standard.

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

[ManomayLR]

Population densities in Mid Wales are still 4-5x higher than the Highlands as a whole, and go higher if you exclude Inverness. The population densities of any uninhabited parts of any country are zero, of course...

4x higher than a very small number is still a small number, and the basic premise still holds true. For most of Wales between the routes of the A465/A40 across the south and the A55 across the north coast the topography and population means that it is going to be difficult to provide usable public transport solutions. There are plenty of calls for extra bus services and even reopening rail services, however there's still the main problems that Mid Wales throws up with regards to public transport:

On the population side, you simply don't have enough people wanting to go to the same place at the same time to fill a bus or train. This means you either run lots of empty buses and trains (drastically increasing emissions) or run fewer services and expect the public to make their lives fit the timetable. The third option of subsidised taxis/book-a-bus that many councils are embracing is much more flexible, however it does require you to decide yesterday where you want to go today.

On the topography side, railways generally have to stick to the lower ground to avoid lots of expensive tunnels, while bus routes stick to routes via populated towns to pick up as many fares as possible. This causes issues if you happen to want to go somewhere "over the mountain", such as Bala to Denbigh which is an hour by car or three hours by bus.

The other aspect is that in Wales, the underpopulated bit lies between, and thanks also to the terrain, is a big natural barrier between, the two main areas of higher population density in North and South Wales.

North-South transport policy is therefore a vital aspect in terms of building Welsh identity and giving people outside the Cardiff/Swansea areas access to national institutions and resources, as well as, say, top jobs.

There is no direct North-South rail link within Wales and the main North-South road link, the A470, is well below standard.

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

What about a North-South rail link? It doesn't seem like a bad idea, as long as it is at least 100mph ideally 125 and is electrified fully.

[roadtester]

What about a North-South rail link? It doesn't seem like a bad idea, as long as it is at least 100mph ideally 125 and is electrified fully.

I’d love to see it, but sadly unviable, I think. You can’t actually get from North to South Wales by train without a dog-leg into England. There are (long) through services but attempts to upgrade them (Google WAG express) have been hard going.

This is why trying to make the A470 a bit better is the obvious option.

[jnty]

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

So the key transport issue, as you see it, in Wales today wasn't actually going to be addressed in a holistic way by the previous programme of transport improvements? Sounds like a rethink was probably the correct option!

[rhyds]

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

So the key transport issue, as you see it, in Wales today wasn't actually going to be addressed in a holistic way by the previous programme of transport improvements? Sounds like a rethink was probably the correct option!

Except its not going to be fixed by any suggested public transport projects either.

[jnty]

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

So the key transport issue, as you see it, in Wales today wasn't actually going to be addressed in a holistic way by the previous programme of transport improvements? Sounds like a rethink was probably the correct option!

Except its not going to be fixed by any suggested public transport projects either.

So better to throw money we don't have down the drain making roundabouts bigger instead?

Mid Wales is a bit of a red herring anyway - it constitutes a small proportion of the projects under review and several of them have partially or fully survived it.

[roadtester]

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

So the key transport issue, as you see it, in Wales today wasn't actually going to be addressed in a holistic way by the previous programme of transport improvements? Sounds like a rethink was probably the correct option!

Well if they were basically saying ‘our current transport policy doesn’t address our main transport problem of north-south links so here a different one that does’ I’d certainly agree!

But instead it seems to be ‘we’re not sorting bottlenecks and accident black spots because we don’t like cars, so here are some random stretches of bike lanes instead’.

[rhyds]

What about a North-South rail link? It doesn't seem like a bad idea, as long as it is at least 100mph ideally 125 and is electrified fully.

The problem is that while an N-S Link is a fine "nation building" exercise its pretty useless as a transport service. Through the middle of Wales you generally have three viable options for transport corridors

1) Up the West "Coast"

This is the favoured route for those who want to see the rai route between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth reinstated, and then an extension up the Cambrian Coast line with another new route between Pwllheli and Bangor via Caernarfon.

The problem here is that the current Carmarthen-Aberystwyth route is disused, winding, slow and will cost, from the WG's own report, about £750m to re-open. In roads terms that's 7 Newtown bypasses and the new Dyfi Bridge with a bit of change to spare. It also doesn't serve the West Wales tourist trade along the coast itself south of Aberystwyth, rather going via tiny market towns like Tregaron with sub 3k populations. And that's before you try and open/reopen the northern section through a National Park and Caernarfon town centre.

2) Up the Middle

This is not a good way to send a railway line. As with the western option there's no large towns along this route, and the mountains would make a railway connection exceedingly expensive or very circuitous. Throw in lots of National Parks and its a non-starter even if you tried using the Heart of Wales line as part of the route.

3) Up the Eastern side

This is effectively where the line runs now, it goes north via Abergavenny and Monmouth and runs via the English Marches via Hereford before reaching Shrewsbury (where it meets the Cambrian Line) before running to Wrexham and the North Wales Coast line via Chester. A quick look at a topography map tells you why this is, the current route is very, very flat compared to even the flat(er) bits of Powys, and is the sensible place to build a railway.

In short, in my opinion it would be cheaper for the Welsh Government to raise an army and invade the English Marcher counties where the current railway lies and annexe them than to build a north-south rail link within Wales.

[roadtester]

What about a North-South rail link? It doesn't seem like a bad idea, as long as it is at least 100mph ideally 125 and is electrified fully.

The problem is that while an N-S Link is a fine "nation building" exercise its pretty useless as a transport service. Through the middle of Wales you generally have three viable options for transport corridors

1) Up the West "Coast"

This is the favoured route for those who want to see the rai route between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth reinstated, and then an extension up the Cambrian Coast line with another new route between Pwllheli and Bangor via Caernarfon.

The problem here is that the current Carmarthen-Aberystwyth route is disused, winding, slow and will cost, from the WG's own report, about £750m to re-open. In roads terms that's 7 Newtown bypasses and the new Dyfi Bridge with a bit of change to spare. It also doesn't serve the West Wales tourist trade along the coast itself south of Aberystwyth, rather going via tiny market towns like Tregaron with sub 3k populations. And that's before you try and open/reopen the northern section through a National Park and Caernarfon town centre.

2) Up the Middle

This is not a good way to send a railway line. As with the western option there's no large towns along this route, and the mountains would make a railway connection exceedingly expensive or very circuitous. Throw in lots of National Parks and its a non-starter even if you tried using the Heart of Wales line as part of the route.

3) Up the Eastern side

This is effectively where the line runs now, it goes north via Abergavenny and Monmouth and runs via the English Marches via Hereford before reaching Shrewsbury (where it meets the Cambrian Line) before running to Wrexham and the North Wales Coast line via Chester. A quick look at a topography map tells you why this is, the current route is very, very flat compared to even the flat(er) bits of Powys, and is the sensible place to build a railway.

In short, in my opinion it would be cheaper for the Welsh Government to raise an army and invade the English Marcher counties where the current railway lies and annexe them than to build a north-south rail link within Wales.

I think everything you say is basically correct but in the UK we do lack ambition when it comes to the transformative nature of investment in infrastructure. If we were still in the EU and this were a remote area of Spain with similarly difficult terrain, I suspect a new rail line or a new North South DC link are options that wouldn’t be rejected out of hand.

[jnty]

I can’t see that it would make sense for a full DC or motorway to replace the A470 but even a limited programme of improvements to make it worthy of being Wales’ spine in transport terms would now seem to be unlikely.

So the key transport issue, as you see it, in Wales today wasn't actually going to be addressed in a holistic way by the previous programme of transport improvements? Sounds like a rethink was probably the correct option!

Well if they were basically saying ‘our current transport policy doesn’t address our main transport problem of north-south links so here a different one that does’ I’d certainly agree!

But instead it seems to be ‘we’re not sorting bottlenecks and accident black spots because we don’t like cars, so here are some random stretches of bike lanes instead’.

If the 'random stretches of bike lane' were costing as much as the cancelled projects, you might have a point, but I'm pretty sure they're not.

The devolved administrations in the UK can't borrow and must balance their budget every year. This means that money not spent on roads must be spent somewhere else - it doesn't just go in a furnace. Wales presumably faces the same challenges as the rest of the country in maintaining the required investment in health, social care and education (among other things - the article highlights risks to bus funding too.) There's nothing quite like an unhealthy population to drag economic growth and destroy social value. It's hard to argue that the Welsh administration had targeted the roads investment so well that removing it would be a tragedy while also arguing that the released funds will be poorly spent elsewhere when so many pressing and urgent budgetary demands exist.